中辉有色观点-20260311

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Participate after volatility reduction [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The situation in Iran is changeable, affecting the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and silver needs to pay attention to risk - reward ratio. Copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. show different trends due to supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - demand imbalance [1][3][4] - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, with short - term support at around 1120. Silver should pay attention to the support around 21000 [4] - Copper continues to rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Zinc can hold long positions cautiously in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term. Aluminum can go long on dips in the short - term. Nickel and stainless steel can go long on dips. Lithium carbonate should be bought on dips [7][10][14][18][22] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market performance: Spot gold rose 1.10%, COMEX gold futures rose 1.96%, and Shanghai gold and silver prices fluctuated upward. The prices of gold and silver in SHFE and COMEX showed different degrees of increase, and the gold - silver ratio decreased [2] - Basic logic: The situation in Iran is uncertain. The US Navy's claim of escorting oil tankers is controversial, and the US restricts Israel's military actions against Iran. China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months. The gold market has "triple shocks", but the four underlying logics supporting the long - term bull market of precious metals remain unchanged [3][4] Copper - Market performance: Shanghai copper continued to rebound. The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all increased, and the trading volume and inventory showed different changes [5] - Industrial logic: The global copper mine supply is continuously tight, the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a record low. The production of electrolytic copper in February decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase in March. The copper inventory has increased significantly, but the effective circulating copper inventory is expected to be tight. The spot discount has converged, and downstream buyers are actively purchasing at low prices [6] - Strategy recommendation: It is recommended to buy on dips, and industrial buyers should purchase as needed. Sellers should wait for the price to rebound and sell against the upper pressure level. The medium - to - long - term trend of copper is still optimistic. Short - term Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [101000, 104000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on the range of [13000, 13200] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market performance: Shanghai zinc fluctuated within a range. The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed small changes, and the trading volume and inventory also changed [8] - Industrial logic: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Some mines have production reduction or non - production problems. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remains flat, and overseas zinc smelters have low operating rates. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to decrease in February, and the demand side is weak, with continuous inventory accumulation [9] - Strategy recommendation: In the short - term, hold long positions in zinc cautiously. In the medium - to - long - term, buy on dips. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [24200, 24800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on the range of [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market performance: The aluminum price rebounded slightly, and alumina was under pressure again [12] - Industrial logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. There are short - term supply disturbances in the Middle East. The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased, and the aluminum rod inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream processing enterprises' operating rate has increased. The overseas bauxite supply is sufficient, and the domestic alumina inventory has decreased slightly, but the oversupply pattern remains [13] - Strategy recommendation: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23500 - 25500] [14] Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16] - Industrial logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Indonesia may reduce the nickel ore production quota in 2026, but the news of additional supplementary quotas weakens the expectation of tight supply. The domestic pure nickel social inventory is still at a high level, and the downstream stainless steel inventory has increased, suppressing the price [17] - Strategy recommendation: It is recommended to go long on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to Indonesia's policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 opened slightly higher and fluctuated within a narrow range, closing above 160,000 [20] - Industrial logic: The supply - demand pattern remains tight. The total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks, and the upstream smelter inventory is insufficient. The lithium concentrate ban in Zimbabwe has not been fully priced in. Although the inventory reduction amplitude has weakened recently, there is still rigid support below [21] - Strategy recommendation: Buy on dips in the range of [156000 - 170000] [22]