中东航线再有船舶调往欧线，马士基3月下半月最后一周运

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the near - term contract EC2604, as it approaches delivery, the volatility is expected to be magnified due to the game between shipping companies' price - holding expectations under high geopolitical risks and the actual prices under weak off - season cargo volume. It is recommended that investors closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [6][7]. - For the relatively peak - season contracts in June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [8]. - The strategy suggests no unilateral operation for now and recommends a long EC2606 and short EC2610 arbitrage [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 10, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 59,241.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 91,438.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 is 1848.90, EC2605 is 1908.00, EC2606 is 2170.00, EC2607 is 2277.70, EC2608 is 2157.60, EC2609 is 1587.10, EC2610 is 1459.20, and EC2512 is 1782.90 [9]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1452 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1940 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2717 US dollars/FEU. On March 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1545.46 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1121.22 points [9]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 86,000 TEU, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU has been delivered, with a capacity of 17,148 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4][5]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of March is 320,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 362,300, 341,900, 293,100, and 285,400 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April is 324,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15, 16, 17, and 18 are 361,400, 239,900, 404,500, and 294,000 TEU respectively. There were 8 blank sailings in March (3 by the OA Alliance, 1 by the Gemini Alliance, and 4 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (by the OA Alliance). There are 2 TBNs in April [5]. 3.4 Supply Chain - After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies tried to hold prices in the off - season. Maersk set the price for the second week of the second half of March at 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU (equivalent to 1600 - 1700 points in SCFIS), and MSC's online quote for the second half of March is 2740 US dollars/FEU (100 US dollars/FEU higher than the first half). YML updated its price for the first week of the second half of March to 2700 US dollars/FEU. CMA announced an emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) of about 150 US dollars/TEU (equivalent to about 200 points on the futures market) for European routes starting from March 23. Two large ships were transferred from the Middle East route to the Asia - Europe route, increasing the supply - side pressure and potentially affecting European line freight rates. Maersk's quote for the last week of the second half of March is 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU, the same as the previous week [6]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade is relatively high, with the container trade volume in most months having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports due to concerns about future inflation, which could drive up China's export demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the expectation of a global economic recession caused by a large increase in oil prices [8].