Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Nighttime oil prices fluctuated violently. Military conflicts in the Middle East continue, and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is severely restricted. Iraq has cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, and Kuwait has cut supply by 300,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are using alternative pipelines, and oil prices are expected to remain high until the strait resumes normal passage [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong performance. The global economic outlook and interest - rate cut paths are uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at historical highs. The inflation expectation has strengthened after the sharp fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices showed a positive - line oscillation. The Iran situation is still uncertain, and the copper market has high volatility. The visible copper inventory is high, and the LME 0 - 3 month spot is at a discount of $92. The domestic spot discount is narrowing. The copper price is supported by spot buying interest but may still oscillate due to the uncertain situation and high inventory [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic social inventory is at a multi - year high, but the Middle East situation has intensified the shortage concern, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Aluminum prices are fluctuating sharply at historical highs [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Under geopolitical risks, the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum remains above 1,000 yuan in the short term [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly. The spot trading volume has increased slightly. The production cut of Middle East electrolytic aluminum has a negative impact, and the freight increase has raised the import cost, but the overall oversupply situation remains [7]. Zinc - The average price of SMM 1 zinc is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a discount of 75 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME zinc inventory has fallen to 94,800 tons. The domestic "Golden March and Silver April" consumption is yet to be verified. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Lead - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high of 285,000 tons. The import profit has expanded, and the overseas oversupply pressure is being transmitted to the domestic market. The refined - scrap price difference has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. Shanghai lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern, with a price range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, with mostly short - term trading in the market. The upstream price rebound has pushed up the mid - stream price. The nickel inventory has increased by 8,000 tons to 84,500 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remains at 1.016 million tons. The nickel market lacks independent driving factors and is expected to oscillate [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated. The tin market itself has few news. The LME 0 - 3 month spot is at a discount of $76. Shanghai tin is in a relatively high - price area, and the resistance area of 400,000 - 415,000 yuan needs to be observed [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 99,000 tons. The production of lithium carbonate has recovered to a high level at the end of February and early March. The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillates, and the demand change after the end of the March export rush needs to be observed [12]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline. The spot price of N - type re - feed material has dropped to 48,500 yuan/ton. The polysilicon inventory has risen to 348,000 tons. The short - term market is still affected by macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are weakly supportive [13]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of SMM East China 553 industrial silicon has dropped to 9,200 yuan/ton. The supply in March is expected to be 345,000 tons, a 26% month - on - month increase. The downstream performance is differentiated. The short - term price is dominated by macro - sentiment and is expected to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Nighttime steel prices oscillated. The apparent demand for rebar has recovered slowly, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The steel price is affected by the Iran situation and the demand in the peak season [15]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures oscillated overnight. The global shipping volume has decreased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory is at a high level and may enter a seasonal destocking stage. The iron - ore supply and demand have improved marginally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday coke price declined. The spot price has increased. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The coke price may be pushed up by the concern about energy due to geopolitical conflicts [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday coking - coal price oscillated weakly. The spot price has increased. The coking - coal inventory has slightly decreased. The coking - coal price may be affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and is expected to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price of manganese silicon oscillated weakly. The international conflict has a positive impact on the manganese - ore freight, which is beneficial to the cost side. The demand for iron - water has decreased significantly. The price is likely to oscillate [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price of silicon iron oscillated weakly. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the Lanzhou - carbon price has slightly decreased. The demand for iron - water remains at a low level. The supply has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased. The price is likely to oscillate [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Chemicals Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot - market price of Maersk's W13 offer is $2,300/FEU, the same as W12. The price in late March has increased compared to early March, but the subsequent cargo - booking pressure remains. The cost increase may support the freight rate. The short - term and medium - term freight - rate trends are uncertain [21]. Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about the stability of raw - material supply and have adjusted their production plans. The total asphalt production in March is revised to 1.967 million tons. The asphalt price will follow the crude - oil price but with a relatively limited amplitude [22]. Urea - The domestic urea supply is high, and the supply pressure has increased in March. The downstream demand is in the peak season, and the urea price is expected to run stably under the influence of the supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policy [23]. Methanol - The methanol futures price has dropped significantly due to the expected easing of the Middle East situation. The East China port has continued to accumulate inventory. The operation of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remains at a low level [24]. Styrene - The market believes that the Israel - Iran conflict may end earlier than expected, and the international oil price has dropped. The styrene factory has significantly lowered the price, and the market trading is average [25]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market believes that the Israel - Iran conflict may end earlier than expected, and the international oil price has dropped. The demand for propylene has weakened, and the trading atmosphere in the polyethylene and polypropylene markets is general [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The PVC price has dropped from a high level. The inventory of sample enterprises has decreased, but the inventory pressure still exists. The caustic - soda price has dropped from a high level. The industry profit has been significantly repaired, and the supply pressure is large [27]. PX and PTA - The risk premium of PX and PTA continues to decline. The downstream of polyester yarn has stopped purchasing after the raw - material price increase. The short - term focus is on inventory digestion [28]. Ethylene Glycol - The new capacity exerts long - term pressure on ethylene glycol. The port inventory continues to rise. The risk premium of ethylene glycol has declined, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still uncertain [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - The short - fiber inventory has increased from a low level, and the bottle - chip load has increased from a low level. The market is mainly affected by the Middle East situation and follows the raw - material price decline [30]. Group 4: Building Materials Glass - The glass price has dropped from a high level. The spot price has increased, and the mid - and upstream inventory pressure is large. The downstream resumption of work is slow, and the market may return to fundamental trading after the sentiment fades [31]. 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude - oil price has fluctuated violently. The global natural - rubber supply is in the low - production season. The domestic tire - starting rate has continued to rise significantly. The strategy is to wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - The soda - ash price has dropped from a high level. The spot price has slightly increased, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased but still has pressure. After the sentiment fades, the strategy of short - selling on the right side can be considered [33]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The international oil price has dropped, and the prices of energy, chemicals, oils, and beans have also followed. The USDA monthly report on soybeans is neutral, and the supply of rapeseed is expected to increase. The short - term prices of soybean and rapeseed futures will follow the war situation [34]. Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed - The oil prices have significantly declined following the crude - oil price. The MPOB report on palm oil shows that the inventory is higher than expected. The price of palm oil has become less cost - effective, and the subsequent supply and demand need to be carefully observed [35]. Domestic Soybean - The domestic soybean price is oscillating at a high level. The soybean auction has mostly failed. The price is affected by the crude - oil price and the Middle East situation [36]. Corn - The domestic corn price has slightly increased. The U.S. corn price has followed the crude - oil price decline. The Dalian corn futures will follow the geopolitical factors in the short term and may return to the fundamental - based weak - oscillation mode after the Middle East situation stabilizes [37]. Live Pigs - The live - pig spot price is slightly weak, and the futures price is oscillating. The pig price is in the second - bottoming process, and the inventory pressure needs to be further reduced. The long - term potential support comes from factors such as second - fattening, frozen - meat storage, and capacity reduction [38]. Eggs - The egg spot price is moderately strong, and the futures price has slightly declined. The supply of new - laying hens is expected to be low in the first half of 2026, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on egg futures contracts at low prices [39]. Cotton - The U.S. cotton price has increased, and the USDA monthly report is bearish. The Zhengzhou cotton price is oscillating at a high level. The domestic commercial cotton inventory is being well digested, and the supply is expected to be tight. The short - term trend is oscillating, and cautious operation is recommended [40]. Sugar - The international sugar price is oscillating. India's sugar production has increased significantly, while Thailand's production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar price is under pressure in the short term, and the subsequent production situation needs to be observed [41]. Apples - The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The demand in the northwest产区 is good after the festival, but the quality in Shandong is poor, and the inventory is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Wood - The wood futures price is oscillating. The external - market price has increased, and the domestic spot price is relatively weak. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Pulp - The pulp price has significantly declined. The domestic port inventory is at a high level. The overseas pulp price is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The mid - term trend is likely to be range - bound [44]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market rebounded yesterday, and technology stocks recovered. The stock - index futures contracts all closed up, with IM leading the increase. The geopolitical risk has been alleviated to some extent, and the market sentiment has improved. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, and the A - share market is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern [45]. Treasury Bonds - On March 10, the treasury - bond futures showed a narrow - range differentiation. The central bank has increased the net investment. With the decline of oil prices and the reduction of financial risks in the Japanese and South Korean markets, the opportunity to go long on TL can be considered in a loose - liquidity situation [46].
国投期货综合晨报-20260311
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-03-11 05:15