USDA报告发布，油脂受外部影响波动加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The release of the USDA report and the MPOB report, along with the impact of international crude oil prices, have caused the prices of the three major oils to fluctuate and decline, and the subsequent fluctuations have intensified. Attention should be paid to the development of the international situation [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,462.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -258 yuan and a range of -2.65% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,444.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -228.00 yuan and a range of -2.63% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,713.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -241.00 yuan and a range of -2.42% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -400.00 yuan and a range of -4.11%. The spot basis was P05 - 132.00, with a month-on-month change of -142.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,660.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -340.00 yuan/ton and a range of -3.78%. The spot basis was Y05 + 216.00, with a month-on-month change of -112.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,310.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -240.00 yuan and a range of -2.27%. The spot basis was OI05 + 597.00, with a month-on-month change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market Information - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 615 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 622 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,151 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1,139 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10 was 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase compared with the 451,340 tons exported in the same period last month - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10 was 581,364 tons, a 45.34% increase compared with the 399,995 tons exported in the same period last month - The MPOB released the February Malaysian palm oil supply and demand report: Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1,284,699 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.55%, lower than the market expectation of 1.3 million tons; exports were 1,127,605 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 22.48%, lower than the market expectation of 1.18 million tons; imports were 76,276 tons, a month-on-month increase of 136.03%; the inventory was 2,704,286 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.94%, higher than the market expectation of 2.63 million tons - The US Department of Agriculture lowered the expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/2026 season from the previous 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, with the market expectation being 48.11 million tons; it maintained the expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/2026 season at 180 million tons, with the market expectation being 179.06 million tons [2]