前期风险溢价回吐空间有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The risk premium of aluminium prices has limited room to retrace. Although the US - Iran crisis has shown signs of easing and oil prices have fallen, the supply overseas remains tight, and the domestic downstream has resumed production. The overseas supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and there is still room for aluminium prices to rise. For alumina, the cost - push logic has changed, the overall domestic supply is in surplus, but there is short - term support for prices and long - term pressure [6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 24,470 yuan/ton, a change of - 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 120 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminium price is 24,340 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 250 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminium price is 24,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 720 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 170 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Aluminium Futures - On March 10, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,685 yuan/ton, closed at 24,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,945 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,450 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 425,557 lots, and the open interest was 206,507 lots [2]. 3.3 Aluminium Inventory - As of March 10, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 1.271 million tons, a change of 15,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 341,263 tons, a change of 5,435 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 452,375 tons, a change of - 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On March 10, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,660 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,620 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On March 10, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,893 yuan/ton, closed at 2,839 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 3.40%. The highest price was 2,904 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 620,429 lots, and the open interest was 292,736 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminium Alloy Price - On March 10, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminium was 18,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminium was 18,900 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,400 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 62,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 83,600 tons [4]. 3.8 Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5].