情绪降温，现货价格稳定

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Urea futures declined mainly due to the fall in crude oil prices, the weakening of the chemical sector, and the retracement of the previous gains brought by sentiment. The ex - factory quotes of urea spot have reached the March guidance price, and during the critical period of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices for spring plowing in China, the spot price of urea is mainly stable. When the urea futures price strengthens, spot traders enter the market to purchase actively, and spot transactions improve. On the supply side, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resume production, increasing the supply. Some off - season reserves start to be released in March. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, the application of green - returning fertilizers has successively started, the start - up of compound fertilizers after the festival has rebounded, and as the terminal fertilizer application approaches, the market sentiment has improved and the sales volume has increased. Some melamine plants are temporarily shut down, the start - up rate has decreased, and the purchase is for rigid demand. After the festival, downstream enterprises resume work and logistics recovers, but affected by the snow and rain in the north, local areas are still restricted. The factory inventory is reduced, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp increase in international urea prices, but there is no new news about the domestic export quota at present, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On March 10, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,856 yuan/ton (- 49); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,860 yuan/ton (0); the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,890 yuan/ton (+ 10); the price of small - particle urea in Jiangsu was 1,890 yuan/ton (+ 0); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 34 yuan/ton (+ 59); the basis in Henan was 4 yuan/ton (+ 49); the basis in Jiangsu was 34 yuan/ton (+ 49) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of March 10, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 93.31% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0981 billion tons (- 779,000 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 190 million tons (+ 160,000 tons) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of March 10, 2026, the urea production profit was 325 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of March 10, 2026, the export profit was 1,818 yuan/ton (- 15) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of March 10, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.02% (+ 3.61%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.45% (- 6.46%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+ 0.59) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of March 10, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0981 billion tons (- 779,000 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 190 million tons (+ 160,000 tons) [1]