EG跌后反弹，关注霍尔木兹海峡通行情况

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The EG main contract experienced significant fluctuations, first dropping sharply and then rebounding with a narrowing decline. However, due to the weak coal, the rebound amplitude of EG was less than that of other pure oil-based products. The main reasons were Trump's statement that the war was basically over and the news that the G7 planned to jointly release crude oil reserves to supplement the urgent shortage of crude oil in the market, which led to a significant adjustment in crude oil prices. Releasing strategic reserves can only reduce the slope of crude oil price increase, and the fundamental issue lies in the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the war has not completely stopped, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed normal navigation. There is a need to be vigilant about the risk of market fluctuations [1]. - On the domestic supply side, the load of domestic ethylene glycol decreased due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply. In terms of overseas supply, as China imports a large proportion of EG from the Middle East, imports are expected to be further reduced under the influence of the Iranian situation. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, the loads of polyester and weaving are gradually recovering. The continuous increase in raw material prices recently has also driven certain speculative demand and inventory reduction. The inventory pressure of various polyester products is not large, and the short - term price increase is relatively healthy. However, if the cost - side price remains high for a long time, attention also needs to be paid to whether it will have a negative feedback effect such as production reduction on the downstream [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,305 yuan/ton (a change of - 292 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, a decrease of 6.35%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,188 yuan/ton (a change of - 622 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, a decrease of 12.93%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 2 yuan/ton (a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous day) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 82 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 9 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 109 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 551 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference No relevant information provided. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate No relevant information provided. Inventory Data - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 1.068 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons). The main ports continued to accumulate inventory last week, and the current inventory was still relatively high. According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 78,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 12,000 tons [1].