宏观情绪降温，黑色集体回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cooling of macro - sentiment, the black commodities have collectively declined. The glass and soda ash futures have significantly dropped, and the double - silicon futures have also weakened following the black commodities [1][3] - The prices of glass and soda ash spot markets tend to stabilize, while the double - silicon spot markets have different trends. The silicon - manganese market is running weakly, and the silicon - iron market has a slight adjustment with better market activity [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: With the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the glass futures have significantly declined. The spot price has stabilized, and market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures have significantly declined. The spot market quotation tends to stabilize, and the trading volume is average [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: In the short term, the production of float glass has slightly increased, and there is still an ignition expectation for production lines in the Shahe area. The downstream deep - processing enterprises have gradually resumed work, but the inventory is at a high level, and the inventory - accumulation pattern continues. The Middle - East situation has affected the international energy price, which in turn impacts the glass market. Future attention should be paid to energy price trends, glass production line cold - repairs, and peak - season demand [1] - Soda Ash: The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly. With the recent resumption of device operation, the supply side is under continuous pressure. Downstream enterprises have gradually resumed work, but they mainly replenish inventory at low prices for rigid demand, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. The Middle - East situation has affected the international energy price, which in turn impacts the soda ash market. Future attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, cost support, and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon - Manganese: With the news of the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, energy - chemical commodities based on crude oil have significantly declined. The silicon - manganese futures main contract has slightly weakened following the black sector. The silicon - manganese spot market is running weakly, and the cost - side support is still strong. The price of 6517 in the northern market is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures have slightly declined following the black commodities. The silicon - iron market has a slight adjustment, and the market activity is good. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon - iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5450 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon - iron is 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon - Manganese: The price of manganese ore, the raw material, has slightly increased, pushing up the silicon - manganese price from the cost side. However, the shipments from South Africa and Australia remain at a high level, and the manganese ore supply is relatively loose. With the recent price rebound, the profits of multiple production areas have significantly improved. Under the relatively loose overall supply - demand of silicon - manganese, the price increase is still restricted. Continuous attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, inventory changes, and silicon - manganese warehouse receipts [3] - Silicon - Iron: As silicon - iron enterprises maintain low - load production, the supply pressure of silicon - iron has decreased. The downstream has gradually resumed production, boosting the rigid demand for silicon - iron, and the fundamentals have improved. Considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to further decline and the overall production capacity of silicon - iron is relatively loose, the price increase of silicon - iron is restricted. Continuous attention should be paid to the progress of the Two Sessions, silicon - iron production, silicon - iron inventory, and electricity price policies in production areas [3] Strategy - Silicon - Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Silicon - Iron: Oscillating [4]