贵金属日报：地缘迷雾重重，贵金属价格反弹-20260311

Group 1: Market Analysis - US President Trump expressed willingness to dialogue with Iran, announced plans to exempt some oil - related sanctions, and dispatch the navy to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. However, there are disputes over whether the US Navy has actually provided escort [1] - The Trump administration has asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,139.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,150.00 yuan/gram, a change of 0.88% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. At the night session, it opened at 1,150.40 yuan/gram and closed at 1,154.88 yuan/gram, a 0.42% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On March 10, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21,547.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 22,758.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 5.62% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 471,040 lots, and the open interest was 200,036 lots. At the night session, it opened at 22,651 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,536 yuan/kilogram, a 0.98% decrease from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 10, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.156%, a change of - 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury was 0.568%, a change of + 0.02 BP from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Trading Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract on March 10, 2026, the long position changed by 513 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by - 643 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 318,758 lots, a change of - 29.34% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, the long position changed by 5,870 lots, and the short position changed by 7,918 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 882,961 lots, a change of - 30.54% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,070.71 tons, a decrease of 2.61 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,655 tons, a decrease of 56 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 5.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 366.03 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 50.53, a change of - 4.49% from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 61.05, a change of 0.97% from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Analysis - On March 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,916 kilograms, a change of - 34.17% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 346,662 kilograms, a change of - 25.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The Iran situation shows signs of easing, oil prices are oscillating and falling from high levels, market risk appetite is recovering, and the gold price is expected to be in an oscillating and strengthening pattern. The oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,130 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The safe - haven premium of silver may be weaker than that of gold, but the price recovers with the market risk - appetite improvement. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern, with the price fluctuation range between 22,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8][9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Postpone [9]