新能源及有色金属日报：下游备货积极性有限，铅价震荡偏弱-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow destocking. The loss of secondary lead production leads to a lower - than - expected resumption of production, which supports the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, operating in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 10, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $47.74/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 75 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 10, 2026, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,710 yuan/ton and closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 90 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,530 lots, a change of - 8,841 lots compared with the previous trading day. The holding volume was 58,157 lots, a change of 2,265 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,750 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,605 yuan/ton and closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decline from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price fell by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. The lead price continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On March 10, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 10, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, a change of - 1,025 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]