工业硅窄幅弱势运行，多晶硅宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue a weak oscillation. The weak industrial silicon price leads to weak cost support for polysilicon, and the demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been fulfilled. The inventory is high, and the demand transmission in the industrial chain is difficult [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 10, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,550 yuan/ton and closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, a change of (-165) yuan/ton or (-1.88)% compared with the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 243,954 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 9, 2026 was 21,340 lots, a change of 504 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon decreased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 (0) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on February 26 was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [1]. - The demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees after the festival, and most of the post - festival inquiries were tentative [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%. The supply side gradually recovered after the festival, but the operating rate in the southwest remained low during the dry season [1]. Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing solid cost support [2]. Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side is expected to gradually release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon remains sluggish. In the long - term, the price support is obvious. The overall pattern is supply - demand dual - weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large factories and changes in capital sentiment. Short - term range operation is recommended for the single - side strategy [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 10, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated and declined, opening at 42,400 yuan/ton and closing at 42,450 yuan/ton, a change of -1.18% in the closing price compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 35,013 (35,210 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 6,809 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon decreased. The price of N - type material was 44.70 - 53.00 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 34.80, with a month - on - month change of -0.10%, the silicon wafer inventory was 29.01GW, with a month - on - month change of -6.60%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 18,800.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of -5.05%, and the output of silicon wafers was 11.08GW, with a month - on - month change of -2.38% [4]. - In March, some large factories have plans to start production one after another. The supply contraction situation will end, and the output is expected to increase compared with February. However, the demand side has not improved significantly and is expected to remain sluggish. The pattern of oversupply will continue. The polysilicon price oscillated widely on that day, with low overall trading volume and pessimistic market sentiment [6]. Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue a weak oscillation. The weak industrial silicon price makes the cost support for polysilicon weak. The demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been fulfilled, and the high inventory makes the demand transmission in the industrial chain difficult. After the festival, silicon wafer enterprises resumed production, but the inventory pressure still exists. The recent conflict in the Middle East has cooled the global preference sentiment, which may intensify the selling pressure on the disk. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the post - festival supply - demand recovery situation, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the silver price trend and inventory reduction progress. Short - term range operation is recommended for the single - side strategy, and the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short - term [7].