地缘缓和预期增加，市场从高点大幅回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, be aware of high market volatility [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, be aware of high market volatility [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - After Trump's statement, the market's expectation of the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict increased significantly. Coupled with long positions taking profits after the previous huge increase, the market has fallen significantly from its high point. However, there has been no substantial ceasefire between Iran and the US and Israel, and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz has not significantly recovered. As of March 10, the number of passing oil tankers remained low. Some oil tankers may have turned off their AIS signals when passing through the strait, leading to statistical omissions [1] - For the fuel oil market, the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion of high-sulfur fuel oil exports, so FU has a relatively prominent exposure and elasticity to geopolitical risks. In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, although only Kuwait is an important exporter, the significant increase in the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel (especially diesel) will significantly boost the valuation of low-sulfur oil. Therefore, both FU and LU are highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Considering the changes in the news, both long and short positions need to be cautious [1] 3. Summary of Key Figures - The closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures in the day session fell 1.15% to 4,386 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures in the day session fell 1.82% to 4,908 yuan/ton [1] - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]