地缘政治持续影响，聚烯烃价格大幅回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors have led to a significant decline in polyolefin prices. Although the market sentiment has cooled and international oil prices have dropped, the risk of raw material supply interruption still exists, and there are expectations of supply contraction and cost support. For PE, the start - up rate has declined, and downstream demand has increased. For PP, the upstream supply has shrunk, and the social inventory has started to decline from a high level [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - Figures include plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, PP East China basis, L05 - L09, and PP05 - PP09 [8][13][14] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE start - up rate is 86.9% (-1.0%), PP start - up rate is 74.4% (-1.1%). PE oil - based production profit is 392.5 yuan/ton (+1496.0), PP oil - based production profit is 152.5 yuan/ton (+1496.0), PDH - made PP production profit is - 544.3 yuan/ton (+474.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures show price differences such as HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [33][34] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is 2021.1 yuan/ton (+1960.8), PP import profit is - 434.7 yuan/ton (+308.0), PP export profit is - 349.0 US dollars/ton (-241.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 18.9% (+8.8%), PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 40.3% (+15.6%), PP downstream plastic braiding start - up rate is 37.7% (+8.4%), PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 59.6% (+12.0) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Relevant figures show PE and PP inventories in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, social, and port reserves [76][78][88] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously buy LLDPE and PP at low prices for hedging - Inter - period: Go long on L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 at low prices - Cross - variety: None [4]