金融期货早评-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the complex external environment affected by the Middle - East conflict, China's foreign trade showed strong resilience and achieved an unexpected growth in the first two months of 2026, mainly driven by the external demand boom in the global AI super - cycle, the global industrial chain restocking cycle, and the low - base effect. The report suggests a "no - prediction, multi - response" approach and recommends more observation and less trading in the current complex market [2]. - For different financial products: - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see; for treasury bonds, it is recommended to hold a small long - term position and buy at low prices for short - term trading [6][7]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, lithium carbonate is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to consider buying at low prices when the non - ferrous metal sector weakens. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are also in a wide - range shock, and it is necessary to wait for the improvement of the supply - demand pattern. In the non - ferrous metal market, the short - term trend of aluminum is dominated by the war situation, and it is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options. Copper is in a shock adjustment state, and it is recommended that industrial customers replenish inventory as normal and speculative customers consider the volatility recovery strategy [8][12][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Macro - Market information includes the possible US - Russia - Ukraine talks in Turkey next week, the complex situation in Iran, and China's goods trade import and export growth of 18.3% in the first two months [1]. - China's foreign trade data in the first two months of 2026 exceeded market expectations, which was mainly due to the external demand dividend in the global AI super - cycle and showed strong resilience in the context of the Middle - East conflict. The report also mentioned that the global market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to operate with the principle of "no - prediction, multi - response" [2]. 3.1.2 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB against the US dollar showed a volatile appreciation trend in the previous trading day. The short - term RMB is difficult to start a trend appreciation due to the relatively strong US dollar index. In the medium - to - long - term, if the domestic economic fundamentals continue to improve and exports remain resilient, the RMB may show a moderate appreciation trend. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises adopt the strategy of rolling foreign exchange purchase at the 6.82 mark [3][4]. 3.1.3 Stock Index - The stock index rose collectively in the previous trading day, but the external uncertainty is still large. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait for the end of the Two Sessions to release more positive policy signals [5][6]. 3.1.4 Treasury Bonds - The futures bonds opened higher and then declined on Tuesday, and the afternoon market gradually recovered. The short - term data and the performance of a single industry cannot change the overall judgment of the economy. It is recommended to hold a small long - term position and buy at low prices for short - term trading [6][7]. 3.2 Commodities 3.2.1 New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price showed a wide - range shock. The long - term demand growth logic of the downstream industries remains unchanged, and it is recommended to consider buying at low prices when the non - ferrous metal sector weakens [8]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Both showed a wide - range shock. The photovoltaic industry has good prospects in the context of global energy transformation, but the current industry is at the bottom of the production cycle, and it is necessary to wait for the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [9][10]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - Aluminum: The short - term trend is dominated by the Middle - East war situation, and it is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options [12]. - Copper: The market is in a shock adjustment state. It is recommended that industrial customers replenish inventory as normal and speculative customers consider the volatility recovery strategy [13][16]. - Zinc: The short - term is affected by inventory accumulation and the overall pressure of the sector, showing a weak trend, but the medium - term is expected to be strong [17]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The supply - side reduction expectation continues. The short - term new energy link may be strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the digestion of the peak - season expectation [18][19]. - Tin: It rebounded slightly under the expectation of a cease - fire. The supply is tight, and the price is suppressed by high inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory removal speed and the development of the Iran situation [20][21]. - Lead: It is in a weak shock state. The current supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a shock operation [22]. 3.2.3 Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The 3 - month USDA report had limited adjustments. The external market fluctuated and closed up, and the internal market rebounded due to shipping issues. It is recommended to conduct positive spreads between months or widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [23][24]. - Oils and Fats: The short - term is in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the weakening of the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil and rapeseed oil and palm oil [25]. 3.2.4 Energy and Oil and Gas - SC: The trading focus is on the Middle - East situation, especially the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the negative feedback caused by the depletion of oil - producing countries' inventories [27][29]. - Fuel Oil: The Asian fuel oil market remains strong, but the short - term spread has回调 [30][31]. - Asphalt: The price is affected by the cost of crude oil. The short - term is affected by geopolitical factors, and the price may decline smoothly when the rigid demand fails to meet expectations after the geopolitical factors subside [32]. 3.2.5 Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The long - term bullish foundation remains, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the short - term adjustment risk caused by the delay of the interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to control the position [36][37]. - Gold and Silver: Strategically, it is still bullish on precious metals. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the support levels and be vigilant against risks such as inflation and liquidity [38][39]. 3.2.6 Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp futures price is in a low - level shock. The short - to - medium - term is expected to continue the low - level shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the Middle - East situation. The offset paper futures price is in a range - bound shock [41][43]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle - East conflict, but the price followed the decline of crude oil at night. It is necessary to pay attention to the callback risk [44][45]. - LPG: It basically follows the trend of crude oil. It is necessary to continue to observe the development of the Iran situation [46][47]. - Methanol: The trading logic has changed twice. It may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of geopolitical easing [48][49]. - Plastics and PP: The market sentiment has cooled down. The short - term supply pressure is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious and not to rush to short [50][51]. - Rubber: It is affected by the geopolitical situation and shows a wide - range shock. It is recommended to be bullish on dips in the medium - term, hold light positions, and pay close attention to the Iran situation [52][57]. - Urea: The war risk may drive up the price, and it is likely to catalyze a market driven by international cost and domestic sentiment [58][59]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The soda ash supply may be affected by maintenance, and the price space is limited. The glass production and sales are currently weak, and the price is restricted by supply recovery expectations and high intermediate inventories [60][61]. 3.3 Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The cost provides support, but the upward space is limited. The short - term furnace charge is in a strong shock, driving the steel price to rebound, but the rebound height is limited [62][64]. - Iron Ore: The short - term price has support, but the upward space is limited due to high supply, weak demand, and structural negative factors [65][66]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply of coking coal may be affected by safety inspections, and the short - term surplus contradiction intensifies. The price of black metals may face downward pressure, and the price elasticity of coking coal and coke is restricted [67][68]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: The cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory pressure of plates [69][70]. 3.4 Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hogs: The piglet replenishment sentiment is weak. It is recommended to sell call options of the main hog contract [72][74]. - Cotton: The current supply - demand situation supports the cotton price, but the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference restricts the upward space. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and US foreign trade policies [75][76]. - Sugar: The short - term trend is strong, mainly driven by the increase in oil prices. The price is expected to continue the strong pattern [77][78]. - Eggs: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in shock, but the upward space is limited due to the high inventory and the off - season background. It is recommended to sell call options of the main egg contract [79]. - Apples: The futures price is strongly supported in the short - term due to the scarcity of delivery products, and it maintains a strong shock pattern [87][89]. - Jujubes: The price is under pressure due to the loose supply - demand situation and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock [90]. - Logs: The inventory has increased significantly after the festival, and the demand has not recovered significantly. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [91].