中国1-2月外贸数据超预期，关注美国2月CPI数据

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Iran situation's tail - risk has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors. Oil price increases have also driven up oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the sessions. The Chinese government sets economic growth at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan [2]. - China's January - February foreign trade data exceeded expectations, driven by the Spring Festival base effect and global external demand recovery. However, geopolitical risks may affect March data [2]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, followed by a large - scale counter - attack from Iran. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East, disrupted the supply chain, and blocked the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Some Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have cut production. The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei. Trump said the war in Iran "won't end this week" but "will end soon" [1]. Domestic and International News - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqchi said Iran's new supreme leader won't consider dialogue or negotiation with the US. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran won't trust US commitments [6]. - Trump said there may be conditional negotiations with Iran but expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's new supreme leader [6]. - China's February exports and imports in US dollars increased by 39.6% and 13.8% respectively, with a trade surplus of $909.8 billion. In RMB, exports and imports increased by 36.1% and 10.9% respectively, with a trade surplus of 6375.5 billion yuan [6]. Macro - economic Data - Due to the government shutdown, the US Q4 2025 GDP growth rate was 1.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. February CPI rose to 1.3%, core CPI rose 1.8%, and PPI decline narrowed to 0.9% [2]. - China's January - February exports in US dollars increased by 21.8%, imports by 19.8%. February single - month exports increased by 39.6%. Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 27.8%, 29.4%, and 49.9% respectively. High - tech and electromechanical products were the main drivers. Imported commodities showed differentiation [2]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices drive commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals are inversely related to oil prices. Energy sector needs to watch the Iran situation and "sell - the - fact" risks. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products and oilseeds. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]