格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260311

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market panic was relieved as the US president said the war with Iran was basically over on Monday, but the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the market risk - aversion sentiment supported the gold price to some extent. The short - term market has high uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.86% to $5198.70 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 4.79% to $88.57 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.98% to 1154.88 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 1.67% to 22536 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 10, the holding of the world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust was 1073.57 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons from the previous trading day. The holding of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 56.34 tons from the previous day, and the current holding was 15654.57 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 0.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April was 13.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 86.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 0.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June was 37.5% [1] - Trump said there might be conditional negotiations with Iran. But within Iran, the Iranian foreign minister said the new supreme leader would not negotiate with the US, while the Iranian vice - president said they had not given up on resolving the issue through negotiations [1] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day in total [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed up 0.23% at 98.94; the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond rose and closed at 4.16%. ICE Brent crude oil first plunged and then rebounded, closing at $91.4 per barrel. The US energy giant ExxonMobil's chief economist warned that the Strait of Hormuz might remain closed for a longer time than the market expected [1] Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]