2月金融数据前瞻（2026.02.10-2026.03.09）：春节假期扰动，同比小幅少增

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall credit growth in February is expected to be slightly lower than the previous year, with new RMB loans estimated at approximately 900-950 billion yuan, and new social financing around 20,400 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 2,000 billion yuan [5][25] - The report highlights that corporate loans remain the main support for credit issuance, despite a weak performance in the residential sector, which is expected to face short-term pressure due to the impact of the Spring Festival [6][21] - The analysis suggests that the first quarter of 2026 may see significant improvements in net interest margins for banks due to a large volume of time deposits maturing, benefiting from the repricing of these deposits [8][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is reported at 3929.41, with a 52-week high of 4670.31 and a low of 3824.91 [2] Credit Market Analysis - February's PMI index fell to 49.00%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, influenced by the Spring Festival [14] - The report notes a divergence in performance between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises showing a slight increase in PMI while small enterprises continued to decline [14][20] Social Financing and Loan Projections - New RMB loans for February are projected at around 6,000 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease [25] - The report anticipates a reduction in undiscounted bills by approximately 1,000 billion yuan, and net financing from government and corporate bonds is expected to be around 15,300 billion yuan [25][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with significant maturing deposits and expected improvements in net interest margins, specifically mentioning Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [8][30] - It also suggests attention to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investment, such as Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [8][30]