Guoxin Securities·2026-03-11 06:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][18] Core Views - JD Group's revenue for the quarter reached 352.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.53%. The retail segment generated 301.9 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in the sales of electronic products. The logistics segment saw revenue of 63.5 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year, while new business revenue surged by 201% to 14.1 billion yuan, driven by rapid growth in the food delivery business [1][7][8] - The non-GAAP net profit for the company was 1.08 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 0.3%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin fell from 3.6% to -0.2%. The retail operating profit margin was 3.2%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the logistics operating profit margin was 3.0%, lower than the previous year's 3.5% [2][8] - The company plans to return approximately 10% to shareholders in 2025, including a share buyback of 3 billion USD and a dividend of 1 USD per ADS, totaling around 1.4 billion USD [2][8] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2026-2027 remain unchanged, with a new revenue forecast for 2028 set at 1,579.3 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 are 29.9 billion yuan and 41.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 1% and 25% increase. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2028 is 45.4 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of approximately 10x for 2026 [3][18][4] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected revenue growth of 6.7% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027, with adjusted net profit margins expected to improve in the coming years [4][21]