沪锌震荡，等待需求端进一步指引

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the zinc market, with the current state of zinc being in a volatile state, awaiting further guidance from the demand side [1] Group 2: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, cumulative imports were 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. Although the December imports decreased month - on - month, they remained at a high level in recent years. The domestic mine supply shortage is expected to gradually improve. In March, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,300 - 1,700 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was $24.33 per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of $7.17. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate spot processing fee remained at 1,400 - 1,700 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the imported zinc concentrate spot processing fee was $15.38 per dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of $8.37 [2] Supply - In February 2025, China's refined zinc production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons (about 10%) compared to January due to the Spring Festival. Some smelters in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan and other places carried out regular maintenance or shutdown during the Spring Festival, and the zinc ore processing fee remained at a low level, with the smelters' raw material inventory lower than the same period in previous years. In March, after the Spring Festival, smelters resumed production, but the current domestic and foreign processing fees are still at historical lows. The production profit of smelting enterprises after excluding by - products is about - 2,022 yuan per ton. Even with the by - product benefits of sulfuric acid and silver, smelters are near the break - even point. The supply of smelting enterprises increased month - on - month, but the release space is still limited. In December 2025, the refined zinc imports were 8,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%; the exports were 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. Currently, the domestic Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating weakly, the refined zinc export profit window is closed, and imports are at a loss [3] Consumption - Last week, the operating rate increased significantly week - on - week. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises gradually returned to work, but the resumption of production was slow. Some enterprises postponed their start - up time due to insufficient orders or meager profits, resulting in the overall operating rate being significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming pre - festival stocks and long - term contract arrivals. Although the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved, the overall purchasing sentiment is not high, the spot market transactions are still sluggish, and the discount is running at a low level. Terminal consumption shows a differentiated pattern. Infrastructure investment is expected to recover at a low level, but the growth of the automobile and home appliance industries has slowed down due to pre - consumption overdraft, and the real estate sector is still in the bottom - grinding stage [4] Spot and Inventory - As of March 6, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,410 yuan per ton. The spot price oscillated slightly lower this week. The basis of Yangtze River spot 0 zinc against the main contract fluctuated between premium and discount. The LME zinc spot maintained a discount of - $28.21. As of the week of March 6, the LME inventory was 94,800 tons, showing a slight decline and currently lower than the average level in recent years. In China, the zinc inventory increased. As of March 9, the domestic social inventory was 218,200 tons, continuously accumulating and at a high level in the past four years. As of March 6, the SHFE inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 8,869 tons week - on - week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - The LME inventory has slightly decreased, but the overseas zinc inventory has increased significantly compared to the low point in the fourth quarter of last year. The spot maintains a discount pattern, and the boosting effect of low inventory on zinc prices has weakened. In China, the Shanghai - London price ratio has declined, the import of ores is limited due to deeper losses, and enterprises mainly rely on domestic ores for production. The domestic processing fee has stopped falling, but the import processing fee continues to weaken, and the shortage of ore supply has not been significantly improved. After the Spring Festival in March, smelters resumed production, and the supply of smelting enterprises increased month - on - month, but the current domestic and foreign processing fees are at historical lows, and the release space is still limited. The import and export windows remain closed, and the import loss has widened. In terms of demand, after the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises gradually returned to work, but the resumption of production was slow. Some enterprises postponed their start - up time due to insufficient orders or meager profits, resulting in the overall operating rate being significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming pre - festival stocks and long - term contract arrivals. Although the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved, the overall purchasing sentiment is not high, the spot market transactions are still sluggish, and the discount is running at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the growth space of supply is limited, but the improvement of domestic demand is limited. The spot maintains a discount, and the high - level inventory puts pressure on zinc prices. However, as the peak season approaches in the second half of the month, with the expectation of accelerated recovery of downstream demand, China is expected to reduce inventory, and zinc prices may have the impetus to rebound. Later, attention should be paid to domestic demand and inventory conditions [7]