养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall Situation: The Middle - East geopolitical situation is volatile, causing the international crude oil market to rise and then fall, which drives the prices of oils, fats, and oilseeds to open lower. However, the overall high - level operation of CBOT soybeans restricts the downward space of China's oil and meal prices. Different agricultural products have different market trends and investment strategies due to their own fundamentals [1][2]. - Specific Products: - Soybean Oil: The main 05 contract of soybean oil is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The support level is 8350 - 8400 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8950 - 9000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to consider long - position operations after the price stabilizes [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term price fluctuates with the oil price. The long - term fundamentals are still strong. The 05 contract's support level is 9450 - 9460, and the pressure level is 10000 - 10100. It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions and then consider long - position operations at low prices [1]. - Palm Oil: The short - term price fluctuates with the oil price. The 05 contract's support level is 9000 - 9050, and the pressure level is 9860 - 9870. It is recommended to reduce or take profit on previous long positions and then consider long - position operations at low prices [2]. - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal: The prices of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal are expected to rise. The support level of the 05 contract of soybean meal is 2850 - 2860 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton. The support level of the 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3570 - 3590, and the pressure level is 3880 - 3900. It is recommended to consider long - position operations after the price stabilizes [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price is expected to be strong in an oscillatory manner. The support level of the 05 contract is 2310 - 2320, and the pressure level is 2500 - 2510. It is advisable to take profit on short - term long positions at high prices [4]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The support level of the 2605 contract of corn is 2240 - 2250, and the pressure level is 2480 - 2500. The support level of the 05 contract of corn starch is 2540 - 2550, and the pressure level is 2780 - 2800. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [5]. - Soybean No. 1: The price is expected to remain firm. The support level of the 05 contract is 4500 - 4550 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 4950 - 4980 yuan/ton. It is recommended to temporarily exit long positions and not to short [6]. - Live Pigs: The price is in a bottom - oscillating state. The 2605 contract fluctuates between the support level of 11000 - 11200 and the pressure level of 12000 - 12300. Conservative investors can hold long positions in the far - month contracts, and aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract below 12000 after the spot pressure is released [7]. - Eggs: The price is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state. The support level of the 2605 contract is 3300 - 3400 points, and the pressure level is 3500 - 3620 points. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on the 05 contract below 3450 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Oilseeds: The prices of soybean No. 1 are expected to remain firm, and it is recommended to wait and see; the prices of soybean No. 2 are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, and it is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes [10]. - Oils and Fats: The prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. For soybean oil and soybean No. 2, it is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes; for rapeseed oil and palm oil, it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and then consider long - position operations at low prices [10]. - Proteins: The prices of soybean meal are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, and it is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes; the prices of rapeseed meal are expected to be strong in an oscillatory manner, and it is advisable to take profit on short - term long positions at high prices [10]. - Energy and By - products: The prices of corn and corn starch are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [10]. - Livestock Farming: The prices of live pigs are in a bottom - oscillating state. It is recommended that conservative investors hold long positions in the far - month contracts, and aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract below 12000 after the spot pressure is released; the prices of eggs are expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on the 05 contract below 3450 [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - month Arbitrage: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, except for corn 5 - 9, which is recommended to go short at high prices [11][12]. - Inter - variety Arbitrage: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, while the 05 soybean oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio are recommended to be treated with a long - position bias [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils and fats, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [15][16]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and fats and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, and peanuts [17][18]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and different months [18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn and corn starch [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - Daily Data: It provides the spot prices of live pigs and eggs in different regions and their price changes [19][20]. - Weekly Data: It shows the key data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, production, and sales [21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of livestock farming (live pigs and eggs), oils and fats and oilseeds, and feed, including price trends, inventory changes, and production and sales data [23][33][48]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats The report provides charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, and corn [95][97][98]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats The report provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [99][100][103].