光大期货软商品日报-20260311

Group 1 - The investment rating for both cotton and sugar is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that for cotton, short - term market is affected by Middle - East situation, with a wide - range oscillation, and in the long - term, there is support and potential upside; for sugar, due to various factors such as regional conflicts, policy expectations, and inventory and production conditions, the market has many uncertainties and the trend is oscillatory [1] Group 3 Research View - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.99% to 65.26 cents/pound, Zhengzhou cotton's main contract fell 0.68% to 15320 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 27883 lots to 721,700 lots. The 3128B spot price index was 16430 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Overseas geopolitical conflicts and Trump's statements affect market expectations. The US cotton futures price has moved up. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures are oscillating weakly, with a stronger night - session. The textile and clothing export data from January to February are good. In the short - term, the market is affected by the Middle - East situation, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the expected difference in cotton planting area [1] - Sugar: Brazil exported 444,600 tons of sugar in the first week of March, with a daily average of 88,900 tons, an 8% decrease compared to the daily average in March last year. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing factories have all decreased. The raw sugar futures price has fallen from a high. In the domestic market, the sugar price has fluctuated with crude oil. There are many differences and concerns in the market, and the market trend is still oscillatory [1] Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 60, down 5; the main contract basis is 1413, up 66. The Xinjiang spot price is 16556 yuan/ton, up 91, and the national spot price is 16733 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 15, down 8; the main contract basis is 41, down 43. The Nanning spot price is 5440 yuan/ton, down 80, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5450 yuan/ton, down 70 [2] Market Information - On March 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11950, an increase of 303 from the previous trading day, with 790 valid forecasts [3] - On March 10, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 16556 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 16755 yuan/ton in Henan, 16767 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 16823 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [3] - On March 10, the comprehensive load of yarn was 52.6, up 0.9 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 19.2, down 0.8; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 59.4, up 5.3; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 26.3, down 2 [3] - On March 10, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5440 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [3] - On March 10, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 15930, an increase of 982 from the previous trading day, with 1120 valid forecasts [4] Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price indices [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]