大连商品交易所农产品日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the impact of the macro - environment on commodities weakened as crude oil prices declined. Corn futures showed a small - opening and then a downward trend with a small - negative - line closing. Corn spot prices were stronger than futures, with Northeast spot prices rising, and downstream demand was okay while inventories at ports and deep - processing plants were low. The price in North China was stable, and the price in the sales area was strong. Technically, corn prices rose sharply at the beginning of the week but then fell back, and it was recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and wait and see [1]. - CBOT soybeans closed higher on Tuesday, supported by cross - market arbitrage trading and investors' expectations for a breakthrough in trade negotiations. The March supply - demand report had little impact. Domestic soybean meal futures followed the external market higher, and the 5 - 9 spread narrowed significantly. It was recommended to participate in the short - term [1]. - BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices and the weakness of the surrounding market. The MPOB report was bearish, with the expected February inventory of Malaysian palm oil higher than market expectations. High - frequency data showed an increase in exports in March. Domestic oils were strong, and it was recommended to hold long positions [1]. - Egg futures slightly corrected on Tuesday, and the spot price increased slightly. The terminal market purchased as needed, and the fundamental situation was weak. It was recommended for short - term trading and to pay attention to supply data and surrounding commodity prices [1]. - Live hog futures slightly corrected on Tuesday. The spot price decreased slightly, with different trends in different regions. The fundamental situation was weak, and it was expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: Futures showed a small - opening and downward trend, spot prices were strong, downstream demand was okay, and inventories were low. Technically, prices rose and then fell back, and it was recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and wait and see [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose, domestic soybean meal followed the external market, the 5 - 9 spread narrowed, and short - term participation was recommended [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil fell, the MPOB report was bearish, domestic oils were strong, and long positions were recommended to be held [1]. - Eggs: Futures slightly corrected, spot prices increased slightly, the fundamental situation was weak, and short - term trading was recommended [1]. - Live Hogs: Futures slightly corrected, spot prices decreased slightly, the fundamental situation was weak, and it was expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile state [2]. Market Information - Geopolitical Negotiations: The US and Iran had differences in four core issues including negotiation scope, uranium enrichment, sanctions, and dialogue pre - conditions [3]. - Supply Blockade: Blocking the Strait of Hormuz affected 1500 - 2000 million barrels of daily crude oil transportation, cutting off about 15% of global crude oil demand, and also affected Qatar's LNG exports [3]. - Passive Production Cuts: Iraq was forced to cut nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of production, and the cut might double in the future [4]. - Market Trends: Short - term crude oil fundamentals were strong, but there was a dispute over the duration of the strait blockade. Oil prices might have three evolution paths depending on the conflict situation [4]. - Market Views: The current rise in oil prices was driven by the re - pricing of supply security in the Middle East. Short - term volatility would remain high, and geopolitical factors dominated the direction [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: Charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs were provided [6][8][9][11]. - Contract Basis: Charts of basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs were provided [14][17][19][25]. Team Introduction - The research team members included Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher for eggs and live hogs. They had rich experience and many honors [27].