黑色商品日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term steel rebar futures market is expected to trade in a narrow range. The export volume of steel products has declined, increasing domestic supply pressure, and the cost support of black commodities has weakened due to the drop in crude oil prices [1]. - The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Although the supply and demand pattern is loose, the increase in shipping costs due to geopolitical factors has raised the cost [1]. - The short - term coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to move in a volatile manner. The supply of coking coal is sufficient, while the demand from coking enterprises has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises has shrunk, and the demand from steel mills for raw materials is mainly based on rigid needs [1]. - The short - term manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The cost side provides certain support, but geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel Rebar: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3104 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 0.95 million lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and the trading volume decreased. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2605 closed at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 300,000 lots and a decrease of 50,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the imports from January to February increased by 18.662 million tons year - on - year. The iron - making water output decreased last week due to environmental protection restrictions but will resume production later [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1121.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton or 3.98%, with an increase of 3653 lots in positions. The supply of coking coal is sufficient, and some coal mines have inventory pressure. The loss of coking enterprises has expanded, and the actual demand for coking coal has decreased [1]. - Coke: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1680.5 yuan/ton, down 59.5 yuan/ton or 3.42%, with a decrease of 3437 lots in positions. After the first round of price cuts for coke, the profit of coking enterprises has further shrunk, and the demand from steel mills is mainly based on rigid needs [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 6088 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 28,956 lots to 367,400 lots. The cost side has certain support, and the supply and demand are relatively stable [1]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5876 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.59%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 1411 lots to 197,100 lots. The production cost has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For steel rebar, the 5 - 10 spread is - 28.0, and the 10 - 1 spread is - 30.0. For hot - rolled coils, the 5 - 10 spread is - 12.0, and the 10 - 1 spread is - 18.0. For iron ore, the 5 - 9 spread is 27.0, and the 9 - 1 spread is 18.0. For coke, the 5 - 9 spread is - 76.0, and the 9 - 1 spread is - 93.5. For coking coal, the 5 - 9 spread is - 97.0, and the 9 - 1 spread is - 218.5. For manganese silicon, the 5 - 9 spread is - 58.0, and the 9 - 1 spread is - 40.0. For ferrosilicon, the 5 - 9 spread is - 52.0, and the 9 - 1 spread is - 6.0 [4]. - Basis: For steel rebar, the 05 contract basis is 116.0, and the 10 contract basis is 88.0. For hot - rolled coils, the 05 contract basis is - 6.0, and the 10 contract basis is - 18.0. For iron ore, the 05 contract basis is 35.2, and the 09 contract basis is 62.2. For coke, the 05 contract basis is - 47.7, and the 09 contract basis is - 123.7. For coking coal, the 05 contract basis is 76.5, and the 09 contract basis is - 20.5. For manganese silicon, the 05 contract basis is - 238.0, and the 09 contract basis is - 296.0. For ferrosilicon, the 05 contract basis is - 276.0, and the 09 contract basis is - 328.0 [4]. - Spot Prices: For steel rebar, the Shanghai price is 3220.0, the Beijing price is 3130.0, and the Guangzhou price is 3400.0. For hot - rolled coils, the Shanghai price is 3250.0, the Tianjin price is 3220.0, and the Guangzhou price is 3280.0. For iron ore, the PB powder price is 772.0, and the super - special powder price is 655.0. For coke, the Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price is 1470.0. For coking coal, the Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal price is 1390.0. For manganese silicon, the Ningxia price is 5800.0, the Inner Mongolia price is 5850.0, and the Guangxi price is 6000.0. For ferrosilicon, the Ningxia price is 5530.0, the Inner Mongolia price is 5530.0, and the Qinghai price is 5550.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The steel rebar futures profit is - 72.8, the long - process profit is 5.6, and the short - process profit is - 114.5. The hot - rolled coil - steel rebar spread is 152.0, the steel rebar - iron ore ratio is 4.0, the steel rebar - coke ratio is 1.8, the coking coal - iron ore ratio is 2.1, and the double - silicon spread is 212.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for steel rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of main contracts for steel rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads of inter - period contracts for steel rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][26][31][34][36][38]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil - steel rebar spread, steel rebar - iron ore ratio, steel rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, and double - silicon spread [39][41][43]. - Steel Rebar Profits: Charts show the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of steel rebar from 2021 to 2026 [44][46][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [49]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the futures industry [49]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [50].