碳酸锂日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 4.15% to 163,000 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,750 yuan/ton to 158,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 4,000 yuan/ton to 155,250 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 158 tons to 37,019 tons [2]. - CATL stated at the earnings briefing that there was no significant change in the production schedule for the second quarter and the whole year, and the capacity utilization rate remained relatively saturated [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 768 tons to 22,590 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 430 tons to 13,914 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 20 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 185 tons to 3,475 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling increased by 133 tons to 2,369 tons. The domestic production in March is expected to increase by 28% to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to increase by 19% to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 24% to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 720 tons to 99,373 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 3,736 tons to 43,757 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,550 tons to 38,140 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 906 tons to 17,476 tons. From the production schedule in March, the weekly de - stocking level basically met expectations, and the market may gradually become less sensitive to high - frequency data. However, it should be noted that the decrease in the absolute quantity led to the decrease of the social inventory turnover days to 27.9 days, which is one of the core reasons for price support. At present, the fundamentals in April are in a tight - balance state. Although the shipment from Zimbabwe has been decreasing since February, which may affect production in mid - to - late April at the earliest, the large shipment data from Chile will offset part of the impact. On the demand side, due to data lag, the terminal performance is under great pressure, which is difficult to effectively boost the upstream battery sector. Also, April is at the end of the phased export rush. Therefore, there is still support below the price, and more definite positive factors are needed to stimulate the previous high. Investors can consider bargain - hunting, and pay attention to the situation in Zimbabwe [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The main contract closing price of lithium carbonate futures on March 10, 2026, was 163,000 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan from the previous day; the continuous contract closing price was 163,000 yuan/ton, up 14,500 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,213 US dollars/ton, up 43 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,480 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 13,175 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [4]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 158,500 yuan/ton, up 3,750 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 155,250 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 152,500 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 159,000 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 140,550 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 18.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.1 US dollars [4]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 114,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 6,000 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 25,228 yuan/ton, down 883 yuan [4]. - The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials changed. For example, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 192,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 187,050 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power - type) was 211,500 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. The prices of some phosphoric acid iron lithium and manganese acid lithium products also increased slightly [4]. - The prices of most battery cells and batteries remained stable, with only a slight increase in the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 0.321 yuan/Wh to 0.322 yuan/Wh [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2026 [5][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [11][13][17]. - Price Differences: Charts 11 - 20 show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. from 2024 to 2026 [17][19]. - Precursor and Cathode Materials: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, phosphoric acid iron lithium, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - Inventory: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to February 2026 [36][37][40]. - Production Costs: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2026 [41][42].