Huachuang Securities·2026-03-11 08:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Views - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 4.1% in the 10th week, ranking 26th among 31 industry sectors [9] - New home transaction volume is expected to face downward pressure due to a decline in demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [34] Industry Overview - Basic Data: The sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,211.98 billion and a circulating market value of about 1,161.24 billion [2] - Sales Performance: In the 10th week, new home sales in 20 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year, with total sales area of 1.21 million square meters [22][24] - Second-hand Home Market: In the same week, second-hand home sales in 11 cities increased by 37% month-on-month but decreased by 31% year-on-year, totaling 1.69 million square meters [26][30] Policy Developments - Local policies include measures in Nanchong to support newlyweds with housing loans and adjustments in Taiyuan's housing fund loan policies to extend loan terms [16][19] - In Hangzhou, a notification was issued to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, offering subsidies for new home purchases [19] Company Dynamics - Poly Developments: Acquired a residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 3.224 billion, with a floor price of 44,985 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 51.08% [20][21] - China Overseas Development: Reported a 35.9% year-on-year decline in property sales for February, totaling approximately 8.464 billion [21] - Yuexiu Group: Reported a 53.3% year-on-year decline in sales for February, with total sales of approximately 2.905 billion [21] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: 1. Precision in land acquisition for development companies, recommending firms like Greentown China and China Overseas Hongyang [34] 2. Stable income assets, particularly leading shopping centers, with a recommendation for Swire Properties [34] 3. Real estate intermediaries with strong management systems, recommending Beike-W for its efficiency and market share [34]