证券研究报告、晨会聚焦：汽车何俊艺：轮胎月度跟踪（3）：26出海加速拐点年，短期重视产能进度、关注原材料等弱化扰动项-20260311

Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is a pivotal year for the tire industry, with an accelerated focus on exports and production capacity, while also emphasizing the importance of raw material costs and other weakening disturbance factors [3][4]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Orders - The report indicates that the production capacity for major tire manufacturers is expected to reach full capacity in Q1 2026, with an average earnings elasticity of +30% for leading companies [3]. - Specific companies such as Zhongce, Sailun, and Senqilin are leading the new production capacity additions, with projections of 10-20 million tires, while Haian Giant Tire is expected to see a year-on-year increase of +224% after reaching full capacity in 2028 [3]. - Export order trends show that in February 2026, Sailun, Senqilin, and Linglong reported year-on-year increases in U.S. import orders of +4%, +109%, and +64% respectively [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Inventory Levels - The report notes that China's production and export volumes remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase in domestic production rates for semi-steel tires at approximately 45% in February 2026 [4]. - The domestic inventory levels for semi-steel tires were reported at 44 days in February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of +6.5%, while full-steel tires had an inventory level of about 48 days, up +3.3% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Factors - The report discusses the impact of trade policies, raw material prices, shipping costs, and exchange rates on the tire industry. It highlights that the European anti-dumping measures expected in 2026 will benefit leading tire companies [4]. - The raw material price index for tires is currently at the 55th percentile over the past three years, driven by increases in natural rubber (81st percentile) and synthetic rubber (57th percentile) [5]. - Shipping costs have remained low across various routes, with no significant impact from Middle Eastern events as of March 8, 2026 [5].