大类资产配置全球跟踪2026年3月第2期：资产概览：原油周度涨幅达30%，年内破50%-20260311

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the period from February 27 to March 6, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a significant increase in oil prices, with a weekly rise of approximately 30% and a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% [1][8] - The report indicates that the performance of commodities, particularly oil, has outperformed other asset classes, driven by supply disruption risks due to geopolitical conflicts [8][22] - The report notes that the correlation between A-shares and commodities has marginally decreased, while the correlation between US and Japanese stocks has slightly increased [12][15] Group 2 - The report states that developed markets experienced smaller declines compared to emerging markets, with North American indices faring better than Asian ones during the same period [22][24] - It mentions that the MSCI Global Index fell by 3.7%, with the smallest decline observed in the Russian RTS index and the largest in the South Korean Composite Index, which dropped by 10.6% [22][24] - The report details that the A-share indices, including the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, saw more pronounced declines compared to the broader market, reflecting a challenging environment for small-cap stocks [22][28] Group 3 - The report describes the Chinese bond market as exhibiting a "bull steepening" trend, with a general decline in yield curves and a widening of the 10Y-2Y yield spread [35][36] - It highlights that the US bond market is characterized by a "bear steepening" trend, with increases in short-term yields and a widening of the 10Y-3M yield spread [35][36] - The report indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has shifted, with expectations now pointing to potential cuts in July and October [35][46] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that commodity prices, particularly oil, have continued to rise, with the South China and CRB commodity indices showing significant increases [57][59] - It notes that among 13 major commodities, 7 recorded price increases, with WTI and Brent crude oil leading the gains [57][59] - The report also mentions a decline in inventories for gold and silver, contrasting with the previous trends observed over the past three years [57][60]