山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.73%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 0.41%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.19%, and Palladium's main contract closed with a change of 0.07%. The short - term safe - haven situation is that trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is weak while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, with a strong US dollar index. The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have led to a global chain reaction, with the world facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle - East conflict may be long - term. The US employment in February unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate rose, challenging the Fed's view of a stable labor market. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of interest rate hikes is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing an end, and the next cut may be in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; palladium's short - term demand still has resilience, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be strongly volatile in the short term, weakly volatile at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]. - Price Data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5198.70 per ounce, up 0.97% from the previous day and 1.95% from last week; London gold closed at $5209.70 per ounce, up 2.43% from the previous day and 3.50% from last week; Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) closed at 1151.98 yuan per gram, up 0.17% from the previous day and down 0.09% from last week; Gold T + D (SGE) closed at 1150.30 yuan per gram, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 0.23% from last week [2]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex gold position was 409,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), up 0.67% from last week; Shanghai Gold's main contract position (SHFE) was 107,728 lots (1 kg per lot), down 3.61% from the previous day and 14.78% from last week; Gold T + D position (SGE) was 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 0.38% from the previous day and up 1.92% from last week. LBMA inventory was 9,158 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,048 tons, down 1.48% from last week; Shanghai Gold (SHFE) inventory was 105 tons, unchanged [2]. Silver - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [4]. - Price Data: Comex silver active contract closed at $88.57 per ounce, up 1.40% from the previous day and 7.62% from last week; London silver closed at $88.53 per ounce, up 6.09% from the previous day and 8.88% from last week; Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) closed at 22,256 yuan per kg, down 2.21% from the previous day and up 1.84% from last week; Silver T + D (SGE) closed at 21,999 yuan per kg, down 1.31% from the previous day and up 2.03% from last week [4]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex silver position was 113,326 lots (5000 ounces per lot), down 9.67% from last week; Shanghai Silver's main contract position (SHFE) was 3,065,280 lots (1 kg per lot), up 2.16% from the previous day and 20.34% from last week; Silver T + D position (SGE) was 2,860,266 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.11% from the previous day and 3.94% from last week. LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.70% from last week; Comex silver inventory was 10,739 tons, down 2.78% from last week; Shanghai Silver (SHFE) inventory was 253 tons, down 18.12% from last week; SGE silver inventory was 372 tons, down 16.41% from last week; total visible inventory was 38,432 tons, down 1.11% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [6]. - Price Data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and 7.74% from last week; London platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week; Platinum's main contract (GFEX) closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and 1.25% from last week; Platinum (SGE) closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and 0.20% from last week [6]. - Position and Inventory Data: NYMEX platinum active contract position was 51,840 lots (50 ounces per lot), down 1.43% from the previous day and 0.93% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, down 0.89% from last week [6]. Palladium - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [7]. - Price Data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and 5.85% from last week; London palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and 3.91% from last week; Palladium's main contract (GFEX) closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week [7]. - Position and Inventory Data: NYMEX palladium active contract position was 4,266 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 24.12% from the previous day and 57.68% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory was 6 tons, down 0.32% from last week [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - US Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous period; the Fed's total assets are $6,679.427 billion, up 0.00% from the previous period; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, up 0.36% from the previous period; the ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.48%, up 0.40% from the previous day and 3.33% from last week; the US dollar index is 98.93, up 0.22% from the previous day and down 0.35% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.13, down 0.00% from the previous day and 65.38% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.46, up 21.05% from the previous day and 53.33% from last week; the US - Europe yield spread (ten - year Treasury) is 1.58, up 2.60% from the previous day and 100.00% from last week; the US - China yield spread (ten - year Treasury) is 2.91, up 1.49% from the previous day and 2.40% from last week [8]. - US Inflation Indicators: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, down 0.30% from the previous period; CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, down 0.10% from the previous period; core CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, up 0.40% from the previous period; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, up 0.08% from the previous period; core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, up 0.17% from the previous period; the University of Michigan's 1 - year inflation expectation is 3.40%, down 0.60% from the previous period; the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.30%, unchanged from the previous period [8]. - US Economic Growth Indicators: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.50%, up 0.10% from the previous period; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 1.40%, down 3.00% from the previous period; the unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; non - farm payrolls monthly change is - 92,000, down 2.18% from the previous period; the labor force participation rate is 61.90%, up 0.20% from the previous period; the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80%, up 0.10% from the previous period; weekly working hours are 34.30 hours, unchanged from the previous period; ADP employment is 63,000, up 52,000 from the previous period; the initial jobless claims for the week are 213,000, unchanged from the previous period; job vacancies are 6,038,000, unchanged from the previous period; Challenger job cuts are 48,300, down 60,100 from the previous period; the NAHB housing market index is 36.00, down 2.70% from the previous period [10]. - US Real Estate Market: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, unchanged; new home sales are 570,000 units, up 7.02% from the previous period; new home starts are 1.022 million units, unchanged [10]. - US Consumption: Retail sales year - on - year growth is 2.08%, down 0.95% from the previous period; retail sales month - on - month growth is 0.03%, up 0.20% from the previous period; personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth is 4.68%, down 0.59% from the previous period; personal consumption expenditure month - on - month growth is 0.43%, up 0.05% from the previous period; the personal savings as a percentage of disposable income is 3.60%, down 0.10% from the previous period [10]. - US Industry: The industrial production index year - on - year growth is 2.28%, up 0.98% from the previous period; the industrial production index month - on - month growth is 0.70%, up 0.45% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate is 76.21%, up 0.47% from the previous period; new orders for durable goods are $78.998 billion, unchanged; new orders for durable goods year - on - year growth is 6.03%, unchanged; exports year - on - year growth is 9.68%, up 39.69% from the previous period; exports month - on - month growth is 1.14%, unchanged; imports year - on - year growth is - 26.33%, up 2.36% from the previous period; imports month - on - month growth is 8.71%, unchanged; the trade balance is - $70.3 billion, down 32.55% from the previous period [10]. - US Economic Surveys: The ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, down 0.20% from the previous period; the ISM services PMI index is 56.10, up 2.30% from the previous period; the Markit manufacturing PMI index is 51.20, down 0.70% from the previous period; the Markit services PMI index is 52.30, down 0.20% from the previous period; the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is 56.60, up 0.20% from the previous period; the small business optimism index is 98.80, down 0.50% from the previous period; the US investor confidence index is 7.20, down 6.00% from the previous period [10]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, up 0.09% from the previous period; the US gold reserves are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's gold reserves are 36,458.24 tons, unchanged [10]. - IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves: The US dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves is 56.32%, down 2.53% from the previous period; the euro's share is 21.13%, up 5.61% from the previous period; the RMB's share is 2.12%, down 0.03% from the previous period; the global share is 25.94%, up 3.58% from the previous period [10]. - Gold/Foreign Exchange Reserves: China's gold as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves is 8.34%, up 4.06% from the previous period; the US's is 81.98%, up 1.08% from the previous period [10]. - Safe - Haven and Commodity Indicators: The geopolitical risk index is 394.17, down 13.02% from last week; the VIX index is 24.93, down 2.24% from the previous day and up 5.77% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 348.03, down 2.48% from the previous day and up 6.21% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.8893, down 0.47% from the previous period [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate at different meetings from March 2026 to December 2027 are provided in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].