Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-11 10:09Group 1 - The combination of HBM and CoWoS has become the standard for AI and computing chips, driving a surge in advanced packaging demand, with the global OSAT industry expected to achieve sales of 333.2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [2][7] - Advanced packaging's future key technology directions focus on material and architecture innovations, including changes in 2.5D interposer layers, the use of glass in packaging, and high-integration architectures like CPO [2][15] - Domestic OSAT manufacturers in China are rapidly emerging under the backdrop of domestic substitution, with expectations for advanced process supply expansion in 2026 to exceed forecasts, particularly in AI-related computing chips [2][35] Group 2 - The OSAT industry is entering a peak capital expenditure phase, with both TSMC and non-TSMC camps increasing their CoWoS capacity expansion plans for 2026, leading to an expanded market presence for OSAT in AI chips [2][23] - Key companies to watch include Tongfu Microelectronics, which is enhancing high-end packaging in collaboration with AMD, and Shenghe Jingwei, a leader in the domestic 2.5D platform [2][56][59] - The advanced packaging market is expected to see significant growth, with domestic manufacturers likely to follow suit in price increases and capacity expansions due to rising costs in packaging services [2][50][47] Group 3 - The global OSAT market is projected to reach a historical high in 2025, driven by HPC and AI applications, with advanced packaging becoming a critical path for enhancing system performance [4][12] - The importance of advanced packaging is increasing as it becomes essential for meeting the complex application demands of downstream industries, especially in high-performance computing and AI [12][28] - The trend towards panel-level packaging (PLP) and glass substrates is expected to become significant in advanced packaging technology, enhancing production efficiency and capacity [24][27]