橡胶甲醇原油：地缘情绪减弱，能化涨跌互现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and rising slightly. The futures price closed up 1.63% to 17,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 110 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing and rebounding, and rising significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,715 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,490 yuan/ton, closing up 2.27% to 2,658 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread expanded to 133 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol continued to rise, but lacked fundamental support. It is expected that the methanol futures price may lack upward momentum in the future [7]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening and falling, and dropping significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 680.0 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 619.1 yuan/barrel, closing down 9.61% to 662.0 yuan/barrel. As some oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risks were weakened, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. However, the US - Iran conflict is still ongoing, and crude oil may strengthen again in the future or maintain a high - level oscillating trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to normal levels, boosting the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises next week. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the resistance to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. In February 2026, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The effective working days in this month were significantly less than in previous years. The business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 5, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 552,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 142,300 tons compared with 410,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 407, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 600 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 188,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.475 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.504 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 26.463 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.564 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 172,150 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 562 contracts and a significant increase of 33,041 contracts or 23.75% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. As of March 3, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 246,514 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 54,198 contracts and a significant increase of 85,120 contracts or 52.74% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,000 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 17,180 yuan/ton | +65 yuan/ton | - 180 yuan/ton | +185 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,670 yuan/ton | +65 yuan/ton | 2,658 yuan/ton | +109 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | - 44 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 615.5 yuan/barrel | - 83.6 yuan/barrel | 662.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.3 yuan/barrel | - 46.5 yuan/barrel | - 79.3 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - spread, inventory, and operating rate charts, but no specific content analysis of these charts is provided in the text [16 - 51]