瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward trend of cotton prices remains unchanged as the downstream consumption is gradually recovering, though new orders are still limited and the pressure on finished product inventory is relatively low. Also, the market is in the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 15,515 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 21,580 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 202,381 hands, up 2,481 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 1,261 hands, up 130 hands - Cotton main contract positions are 743,527 hands, up 21,849 hands; cotton yarn main contract positions are 14,972 hands, up 889 hands - Cotton warehouse receipts are 12,152 sheets, unchanged; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 114 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,668 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,664 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 13,774 yuan/ton - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 21,954 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 23,441 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,332 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, up 13,000 tons - Cotton import volume is 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons - Imported cotton profit is 2,894 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 5.7887 million tons, up 4,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; grey cloth inventory days are 33.13 days, down 0.63 days - Cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, up 200 million meters; yarn output is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 181,872,600 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 303,870,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton is 19.43%, down 1.6%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton is 19.43%, down 1.64% - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.33%, down 0.35%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.76%, unchanged [2] Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's March global cotton supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton output forecast is 26.3425 million tons, up 246,100 tons from the previous period. Global consumption is reduced by 30,500 tons to 25.8177 million tons, and global ending inventory is increased by 278,700 tons to 16.632 million tons. Import volume is estimated at 9.5603 million tons, and export volume is estimated at 9.5603 million tons, both up from last month - ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker US dollar. The US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report raised the global output forecast and lowered the consumption forecast, limiting the increase. The ICE May cotton futures contract closed up 0.68 cents, or 1.05%, at 65.30 cents per pound [2]