Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-11 10:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo oscillatory adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the support at MA60. The macro - situation is tense with the US - Iran conflict. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' profits increase, and the export window closes again. The demand side is in the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, and some policy - supported sectors like automobiles showing bright spots. Technically, the position decreases and the price adjusts, with cautious trading between bulls and bears [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,385 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,342 dollars/ton, up 16 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 174,806 lots, up 73 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,394 lots, up 258 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 134,921 tons, up 8,869 tons; the LME inventory is 98,950 tons, up 4,150 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,290 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,300 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the basis of the ZN main contract is - 95 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 33.45 dollars/ton, down 5.24 dollars; the ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,810 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons; the ILZSG global monthly zinc mine production is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic monthly refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons; the monthly zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons; the weekly zinc social inventory is 218,400 tons, up 5,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the daily implied volatility of zinc at - the - money call options is 27.77%, down 1.14 percentage points; the daily implied volatility of zinc at - the - money put options is 27.77%, down 1.14 percentage points; the daily 20 - day historical volatility of zinc at - the - money options is 23.41%, down 2.89 percentage points; the daily 60 - day historical volatility of zinc at - the - money options is 20.33%, down 0.28 percentage points [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and threatened Iran. Netanyahu said the action against Iran was "not over". Iran's deputy foreign minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense". In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action. The State Council proposed the 2026 central and local budget draft, and the 14th National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee suggested preventing special bond repayment risks [3].