瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260311

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the Shanghai nickel industry dated March 11, 2026, provided by Ruida Futures [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 140,000 yuan level and the support of MA60 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 137,160 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 110 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread is - 460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,558 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 114 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 210,843 lots, with a daily decrease of 681 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 67,001 lots, with a daily decrease of 256 lots; LME nickel inventory is 287,088 tons, with a daily decrease of 330 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 61,769 tons (weekly), with an increase of 978 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 20,412 tons, with a daily decrease of 678 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 54,341 tons, with a daily decrease of 309 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 139,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,850 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 139,850 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,550 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,750 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,590 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,960 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 208.36 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, with a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 924.33 million tons (weekly), with a decrease of 78.41 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, with no change [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 99.61 million tons, with an increase of 10.07 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, with an increase of 0.1109 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 645,600 tons, with a decrease of 6,700 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump said the war with Iran would "soon" end but not this week. Netanyahu said the action against Iran was "not over". Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense" [3] - In the first two months of this year, China's total foreign trade value was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%. China's trade with the US decreased by 16.9%, while that with ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20% [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action, carrying out pilot projects on high - quality industry data set construction for AI empowerment [3] - The 2026 central and local budget draft shows that the national debt limit is 48.5508 trillion yuan, the local government general debt limit is 18.8689 trillion yuan, and the special debt limit is 44.3185 trillion yuan [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, Iran doesn't trust US promises and the military action has entered a new stage. The US is planning to escort and Trump warns Iran not to lay mines [3] - Fundamentally, the nickel ore import volume is decreasing as the Philippines enters the rainy season. Indonesia's RKAB plan may increase the quota by 25% - 30%, which can meet domestic demand and ease supply concerns [3] - In the smelting sector, domestic refined nickel production capacity is large. With the nickel price fluctuating and production profit available, the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, production is resuming after the holiday, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are rising, bringing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries [3] - Domestically, the growth of nickel inventory has slowed down, the market buys on dips, and the spot premium is stable. Overseas, LME inventory is stable, and the spot premium has decreased [3] - Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is adjusting, and the trading between long and short positions has become less active [3]