Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-11 10:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. Currently in the off - season of aquaculture demand, the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with expectations, with limited impact on the market. Driven by the rise of US soybeans, rapeseed meal continues to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in international oil prices have promoted the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel, and the external oil market has significantly supported the domestic market. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure. However, the market has already anticipated this, with limited impact on the market. Recently, the market is trading on the biodiesel demand drive, and the rapeseed oil futures price has also fallen from its high due to the decline in international oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9778 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2480 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 722 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 6049 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 117 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 253,670 hands, down 4131 hands; rapeseed meal is 652,140 hands, down 65,210 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 12,200 hands, down 381 hands; rapeseed meal is - 107,842 hands, up 27,909 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 1125 sheets; rapeseed meal is 2311 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9530 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 10,435 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 5395.43 yuan/ton, down 63.96 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 632 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 140 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import quantity: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 33 yuan/ton, up 117 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 200,000 tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; imports of rapeseed meal: 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 60,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 15,000 tons, up 8500 tons [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 255,500 tons, down 5500 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory: 80,500 tons, down 12,400 tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 0 tons, down 80,000 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory: 283,000 tons, down 15,000 tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量: - 1800 tons, down 1800 tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量: 5400 tons, up 5400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: 30.086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail: 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: 5.254 million tons, up 606,000 tons [2]. Option Market - Rapeseed meal: Implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.65%, down 3.95 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.65%, down 3.94 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 16.75%, up 0.76 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 16.35%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - Rapeseed oil: Implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.86%, down 5 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, down 4.96 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 19.27%, down 0.36 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 20.13%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On March 10 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell along with other vegetable oils due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. The most actively traded May contract fell 6.30 Canadian dollars, settling at 720.10 Canadian dollars per ton; the July contract fell 6.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 729 Canadian dollars; the November contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars, settling at 714.10 Canadian dollars [2]. - There are strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market hopes that the Sino - US negotiations can make a breakthrough. Affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the US soybean biodiesel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing will support the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - Statistics Canada's survey shows that the total intended rapeseed planting area in Canada in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres of traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2].