瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260311

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - On March 11, Treasury bond futures weakened across the board, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.19% respectively. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.46%. In the domestic fundamental aspect, China's exports increased significantly in the first two months of 2026. The CPI rose unexpectedly in February, and the PPI's year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The official manufacturing PMI weakened in February, but the service industry PMI rebounded seasonally. In terms of policy, the central government's borrowing scale in 2026 is higher than that of local governments. Overseas, the geopolitical situation in the US - Iran conflict is uncertain, and the risk of "stagflation - like" in the US economy is rising. Overall, the pressure on the bond market adjustment intensifies, and it is expected that the interest rate will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: T main contract closed at 108.260, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 59,789, down 35,249; TF main contract closed at 105.945, down 0.03%, with a trading volume of 54,976, down 14,501; TS main contract closed at 102.450, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 28,051, down 414; TL main contract closed at 111.250, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of 70,320, down 29,627 [2]. - Futures Spreads: TL2606 - 2603 spread was 0.10, down 0.01; T06 - TL06 spread was - 2.99, up 0.19; T2606 - 2603 spread was - 0.07, down 0.04; TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.32, up 0.02; TF2606 - 2603 spread was - 0.03, down 0.08; TS06 - T06 spread was - 5.81, up 0.04; TS2606 - 2603 spread was 0.00, up 0.02; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.49, up 0.02 [2]. - Futures Positions: T main contract open interest was 289,768, down 3,836; TF main contract open interest was 163,997, down 246; TS main contract open interest was 71,442, up 671; TL main contract open interest was 130,349, up 665 [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 230012.IB, 250025.IB, etc. all showed a downward trend [2]. - Active Treasury Bonds: Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.50bp, 0.15bp, 0.40bp, 0.10bp, and 0.10bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: Overnight silver pledge rate was 1.3630, up 4.90bp; Shibor overnight was 1.3670, up 4.90bp; 7 - day silver pledge rate was 1.4757, up 4.24bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.4600, up 2.80bp; 14 - day silver pledge rate was 1.4800, down 2.40bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.5000, up 0.80bp [2]. - LPR Rates: 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 26.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 40.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day period, and the net investment was - 14 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2% year - on - year, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1% year - on - year [2]. - In 2026, China plans to issue 11.89 trillion yuan of new government debt, including 6.69 trillion yuan of national debt issued by the central government, accounting for about 56.3% of the total new government debt, and 5.2 trillion yuan of local government bonds issued by local governments, accounting for about 43.7% [2][3]. - US President Trump said the war with Iran might end soon, but Iran emphasized the end of the war was up to them, and the geopolitical situation was still uncertain [2][4].