伊朗局势持续，“两会”召开进行时

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - In the past week (20260302 - 20260308), US stock market indices and the Hang Seng index declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Hang Seng index changing -1.24%, -2.02%, -3.01%, and -3.28% respectively [4] - A - shares generally fell, with energy sectors leading the gainers. The wind all - A index changed -2.30%, and most of the other major A - share indices also declined [5][6] - In the past week, most Chinese government bond yields of various maturities decreased, while the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward overall. The US dollar appreciated [7][8][9] - Gold prices dropped, and crude oil prices soared. Brent crude oil futures prices rose 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel [10] - The February US non - farm payrolls report showed poor employment conditions, and the Fed faces a dilemma. The Fed may have more motivation to cut interest rates but may postpone the timing [11] - Looking ahead, in the A - share market, there are still structural opportunities due to the ongoing Iran situation and the "Two Sessions". In the bond market, the Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026. In the commodity and exchange rate market, the US stagflation may cause the Fed to delay rate cuts, and the US dollar may strengthen [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Stock Market - US stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by -1.24%, -2.02%, and -3.01% respectively in the past week [4] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng index decreased by -3.28% in the past week [4] - A - shares: The wind all - A index decreased by -2.30%. Among different indices, the decline rates varied, and 7 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with the petroleum and petrochemical and coal industries leading the gains with a weekly increase of more than 3.0% [6] Bond Market - Chinese government bonds: Most yields of various maturities decreased in the past week. The 10 - year government bond futures contract rose 0.13% compared to February 27, 2026, while the yield of the 10 - year active bond increased by 0.57 BP to 1.7810% compared to February 28, 2026 [7] - US Treasury bonds: The US Treasury yield curve shifted upward overall in the past week. As of March 6, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 18 BP to 4.15% compared to February 27, 2026 [8] Exchange Rate Market - The US dollar appreciated in the past week. The US dollar index increased by 1.34%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen increased by 1.81%, 0.64%, and 1.11% respectively. The exchange rates of the US dollar against offshore and onshore RMB also increased [9] Commodity Market - Gold: Gold prices declined in the past week. London spot gold decreased by 1.81% to $5127.55 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures decreased by 2.70% to $5137.50 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also fell, but to a lesser extent [10] - Crude oil: Brent crude oil futures prices soared 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel in the past week [10] Macroeconomic Situation - The February US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 58,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The Fed faces a dilemma due to poor employment and rising inflation expectations [11] Market Outlook - A - shares: The impact of the Iran geopolitical situation may continue, but the "Two Sessions" are expected to release policy benefits. Suggested sectors to focus on include energy, precious metals, shipping, military, and technology [12] - Bond market: The Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026, and the current 10 - year government bond yield around 1.80% has long - term investment value [12] - Commodity and exchange rate: The US stagflation may cause the Fed to delay rate cuts, the US dollar may strengthen, and commodity prices other than crude oil and precious metals may face pressure [12]