瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber continues to be strong due to the ongoing impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene end. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased significantly, while that of trading enterprises has increased slightly. With some device overhauls in late March, the spot - end inventory is expected to decline significantly. The tire enterprise's operating rate has rebounded significantly, but the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle - East region may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization. The synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 15,615 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 680 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 26,320, with a week - on - week increase of 1,603. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 21,420 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,070 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies has decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 530 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 87.8 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.16 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) is 841.5 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 970 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) is 1,800 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of WTI crude oil is 83.45 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.32 dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 14,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 76.28%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.89 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 81.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 1,424 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 965 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 43,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 34,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,750 tons; the trader's inventory is 9,020 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.47 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 36.73 percentage points. The monthly production of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 45.79 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decrease in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 18.80% [2].