塑料日报：震荡上行-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the plastic price is likely to rise in the near future. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival and the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On March 11, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not return to the pre - holiday level. The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been decreasing since then, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The Strait of Hormuz has been almost closed for many days, causing Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to cut production. However, with the G7 countries discussing the release of strategic oil reserves and Trump's statement, the crude oil price has dropped significantly from a high level. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and the rigid demand was released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North and East China increased, while those in South China remained stable. Although the spot trading was weak due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, the plastic price is likely to rise if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 7,550 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 8,245 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 8,154 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.18%. The position increased by 9,286 lots to 322,673 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 900 to + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7,880 - 8,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,980 - 11,010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,040 - 8,800 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 11, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not return to the pre - holiday level, showing a seasonal change [1][4] - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 840,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $90/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $20/ton to $970/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene increased by $20/ton to $940/ton week - on - week [4]