热卷日报：震荡偏强-20260311

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of game between "weak reality" (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and "strong expectation" (export support, policy benefits). Price increases depend on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. The key in the medium term is the recovery strength of terminal demand [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Prices: The trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday was 278,376 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average broke above the 5-day moving average of 3,246 and the 30-day moving average of 3,251. The medium-term resistance is around the 60-day moving average of 3,265. The open interest decreased by 4,576 lots [1] - Spot Prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,250 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot prices was -19 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: The actual weekly output was 3.0111 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons (-2.75%) from the previous week, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand: The apparent consumption was 2.8157 million tons, a decrease of 97,400 tons from the previous week. Post-festival demand recovery was below expectations. In absolute terms, it remains at a relatively low level compared to historical periods, and the weak reality persists. The actual start of work in downstream manufacturing and the automotive industry needs further verification [4] - Inventory: Social inventory was 3.8161 million tons, an increase of 242,400 tons (+6.78%) from the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory was 900,800 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons (-4.96%) from the previous week, indicating a reduction in in-plant inventory. Total inventory was 4.7169 million tons, an increase of 146,800 tons (+3.21%) from the previous week, indicating that overall inventory is still increasing. Inventory levels in 2026 are higher than in previous years, and inventory pressure remains [4] - Policy: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and allocating 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting medium- and long-term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not improved substantially, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot-rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factors Analysis - Bullish Factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - Bearish Factors: Slow demand realization, drag from raw material prices, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro uncertainties [5] Short-Term Outlook - The main hot-rolled coil contract closed up on Wednesday with a decrease in open interest and trading volume. Short-term support is around the 30-day and 5-day moving averages, and resistance is around this week's high. In the short and medium term, the moving averages are showing signs of strengthening. The market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation." The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. Future attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed in mid-to-late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply-side production [5]