焦煤日报：等待情绪消散-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market opened lower and moved lower, but turned positive in the afternoon. The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with a significant 20% increase in the operating load this period. After the holiday, as mines resume production, coking coal mine inventories have increased by 286,000 tons, while independent coking enterprises and steel mills continue to reduce their inventories (steel mills' inventory decreased by 168,200 tons, and independent coking enterprises' inventory decreased by about 494,100 tons). Currently, the operating load of steel mills has declined, and the post - holiday resumption of production is less than expected, with the current operating rate at 77.71%. Steel mills are mainly digesting their own inventories, resulting in low overall demand for upstream products. One round of price cuts has been implemented, and a second round is expected. The poor demand for coke has squeezed the profits of independent coking enterprises, leading to a negative feedback adjustment to the raw material coking coal. The market has basically digested the impact of the war on energy - chemical products. Coking coal rose slightly today. For a strong rebound in the future, a strengthening of the fundamentals is a necessary condition. As the heating season is about to end, non - power coal will become the main demand side. After the emotional digestion is completed, there is an expectation of a return to the fundamental adjustment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened lower and moved lower, then turned positive in the afternoon. The domestic mines' operating load increased by 20% this period. After the holiday, mine inventories increased by 286,000 tons, while steel mills and independent coking enterprises reduced their inventories. Steel mills' operating rate is 77.71%, and they mainly digest their own inventories. One round of price cuts has been implemented, and a second round is expected. The poor coke demand has a negative impact on coking coal. After the emotional digestion, there is an expectation of a return to the fundamental adjustment [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal is 1,043 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1,144.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 115.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply Data - From February 27th to March 5th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4]. 3.3.2 Demand Data - From March 1st to March 5th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5].