瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - USDA raised the global corn inventory forecast to 292.75 million tons, higher than last month's forecast of 288.98 million tons and analysts' previous expectation of 289.19 million tons. The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, pushing up freight rates and boosting international corn market prices. The increase in import prices also had a positive impact on the domestic market [3]. - In the domestic market, the temperature in the Northeast production area has risen comprehensively, increasing the storage pressure of damp grain. The pace of grain sales at the grass - roots level has gradually accelerated, and more grain sources have been transferred to the trading sector. Due to the increase in oil prices and high acquisition costs, the difficulty of transporting Northeast grain outside has increased. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories are continuously consumed, and they are actively replenishing stocks, but the scope of price increases has narrowed [3]. - In the North China and Huanghuai production areas, after the previous concentrated supply, the enthusiasm of grass - roots farmers to sell grain has weakened, the trading activity of grain points is not high, the shipping rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the scale of arrivals at processing enterprises has shrunk. Some enterprises with insufficient arrivals have slightly increased prices to purchase [3]. - As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers after the festival, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has gradually increased, the supply - side pressure has increased, and the inventory is still on the rise. However, downstream demand is also gradually recovering, the signing and shipment of enterprises have improved compared with last week, and the supply - demand structure of corn starch is acceptable. Supported by the relatively strong corn market, the starch market has also shown a relatively strong and volatile trend recently [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2395 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (5 - 9): 14 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2718 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7): 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 1,384,288 lots, up 2,853 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 256,994 lots, down 5,161 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 250,568 lots, down 18,077 lots; for corn starch: - 13,938 lots, up 2,634 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 75,123 lots, up 510 lots; for corn starch: 6,560 lots, down 150 lots [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 317 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 453.75 cents/bushel, up 0.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,617,461 contracts, down 38,674 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions (weekly): 90,059 contracts, compared with 81,231 contracts (no change information provided) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2439.41 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang: 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn CIF price: 2001.3 yuan/ton, unchanged; international freight for imported corn: 53 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch main contract basis: 82 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; corn main contract basis: 44.41 yuan/ton, down 14.59 yuan/ton; Shandong starch - corn spread (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; cassava starch - corn starch spread (weekly): 657 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; corn starch - 30 - powder spread (daily): - 59 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US: 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; in Brazil: 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina: 53 million tons, unchanged; in China: 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; in Ukraine: 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China: 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 89.2 tons, up 11.6 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 343.7 tons, down 41.5 tons; corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 200 tons, down 21 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly): 120.9 tons, down 1 ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Monthly output of feed: 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons; sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 30.25 days, down 1.04 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 121.95 tons, up 9.46 tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 54.08%, down 0.38%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.73%, up 1.21% [2]. - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 8 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; in Hebei: 107 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jilin: - 21 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 80 tons, up 24 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.14%, down 0.35%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.42%, up 0.12% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 13.86%, down 2.45%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 13.86%, down 2.45% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of March 7, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 second - season corn was 75.9%, compared with 64.9% last week, 83.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 71.5% [2]. - As of March 7, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn was 29.5%, compared with 24.9% last week, 34.5% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 27.3% [2].