天然橡胶日报：高位震荡-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is in a stage of supply - demand game. With firm raw material prices during the low - production season and increasing concerns about production, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory putting pressure on prices, it is expected that rubber prices may fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to observe more and act less [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 17,180 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +1.63%. The price center of the natural rubber market rose. In the Shanghai market, the intended transaction price of SCRWF mainstream goods was 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of Vietnamese SVR3L mixed rubber was 17,200 - 17,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - From mid - to late February, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia gradually entered the low - production season, with raw material output lower than the same period last year, and raw material purchase prices supported. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas are in the winter suspension period, and domestic rubber supply is cut off. The market shows a tight supply pattern. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production is expected to decline from January, and the output in the first quarter is likely to decline. Also, according to past rules, rubber imports in January and February are likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On March 6, 2026, the semi - steel tire operating rate in China was 74.03%, lower than the historical average; the all - steel tire operating rate was 65.90%, also lower than the historical average. Currently, spot transactions are cold, downstream production starts are differentiated, tire manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and follow - up purchase orders may appear. The follow - up resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory need to be concerned. In addition, the situation in Iran has intensified market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 4. Inventory - According to Zhuochuang Information research data, in the week of March 6, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 133,800 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons or 3.32% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 556,300 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons or 0.13% from the previous period [4]