PP日报：震荡上行-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and due to the high - sentiment of chemical products, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but did not return to the pre - holiday level. On March 11, new maintenance devices such as the second line of Guangzhou Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 75.5%, with the production ratio of standard wire drawing falling to about 26%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has been decreasing since then. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years. The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly closed for many days, causing Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to cut production. However, with the G7 countries discussing the release of strategic oil reserves and Trump's statement, the crude oil price has dropped significantly from a high level. Although PP does not rely on Middle - Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle - Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin device loads at home and abroad, and the downstream has a resistance to high prices, resulting in weak spot transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 7,633 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 8,298 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 8,197 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.07%. The position increased by 57,892 lots to 421,712 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose, and the wire drawing was reported at 7,470 - 8,580 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 11, new maintenance devices such as the second line of Guangzhou Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 75.5%, with the production ratio of standard wire drawing falling to about 26% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but did not return to the pre - holiday level [4] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 840,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period of last lunar year. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $90/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $130/ton week - on - week to $1,150/ton [4]