尿素日报：高位反弹-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices rebounded from high levels today, with the futures market opening low and closing high. The spot price remained stable, and the market was affected by factors such as national reserve release, downstream demand, and international market changes. The upstream factory inventory decreased significantly, and the market sentiment was high. However, the upside space was limited, and attention should be paid to the post - peak season export policy and downstream agricultural demand carrying capacity [1] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Urea opened low and closed high today, with the spot price remaining stable. The national reserve is being released, and the market has relatively sufficient available goods. Temporary maintenance does not significantly affect production. The daily output is 220,000 tons. Downstream demand is strong, and the international market price increase has stimulated domestic demand. The upstream factory inventory decreased by 12.79%. The nitrogen association meeting proposed to ensure supply and stabilize prices for spring plowing, and there is a chance to gradually liberalize exports after spring plowing [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,840 yuan/ton, closed at 1,872 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The trading volume was 229,705 lots, an increase of 15,308 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 8,554 lots, and short positions increased by 8,349 lots. Some futures companies had net long or net short positions. On March 11, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,433, an increase of 98 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - Manufacturers still maintained the maximum guiding price, and the spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [7] Supply - On March 11, 2026, the national daily urea output was 221,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 88.94% [9] Enterprise Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 817,200 tons, a decrease of 248,400 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 23.31%. The pre - sale order days were 8.06 days, an increase of 0.35 days from the previous period, an increase of 4.54% [11]