螺纹日报：震荡偏强-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term rating of "oscillating and slightly stronger" for the rebar market [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - and medium - term trends of rebar are strengthening, with the price standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The short - term support is near the 5 - day moving average, and the pressure is at this week's high. The supply has slightly rebounded after the festival, which supports the price to some extent. The real - estate policy is mainly for inventory reduction and stability, and the demand increment space is limited. Future focus should be on the apparent demand data and whether it can continue to pick up to drive inventory depletion. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure. If macro - policies drive downstream demand to recover beyond expectations, the price is expected to rise further; if the demand remains weak, high inventory will still suppress the price [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 8,941 lots. The trading volume shrank significantly compared with the previous trading day, with 534,162 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average at 3,100 in the short - term, and was near the 30 - day moving average at 3,092 and the 60 - day moving average at 3,108 in the medium - term, showing strengthening in the short and medium - term [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of rebar HRB400E 20mm was 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton compared with the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm. The apparent demand in the same period was 982,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176,900 tons, mainly driven by the resumption of work after the festival, but still at a historically low level, suggesting that the demand recovery was less than expected. The downward trend in the real - estate industry has not reversed, and the long - term demand is still declining year - on - year [3] - Inventory: The social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 699,900 tons (+12.33%), with a significant inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,900 tons (+2.19%), with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,800 tons (+9.38%), and the overall inventory pressure increased significantly. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in 2 - 3 weeks, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan", "arranging local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical cost increase, policy support expectation, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6] - Bearish factors: Persistently low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6]