油粕日报：震荡上涨-20260311

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as production adjustments in South America, Chinese procurement, and domestic policies. The oil market is supported by the Middle - East situation and Indian procurement, showing a short - term upward trend but with risks from market sentiment fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Soybean and Bean Meal - The US Department of Agriculture lowered Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while keeping Brazil's at 180 million tons. US 2025/26 soybean imports and crush volumes are expected to increase, with unchanged ending stocks [1] - Brazil's February soybean shipments to China were revised down to 9.1 million tons, with 6.5 million tons in February and 13 million tons scheduled for March. US Gulf and West Coast shipments to China in February were 2.4 million tons, and in March, they are expected to increase to 1.7 million tons [1] - The US Department of Agriculture made few data adjustments, and the driving force for US soybeans is China's future procurement. There may be an order signed during Trump's visit to China from March 31 to April 2. Before the domestic soybean reserve release is confirmed, the market is full of speculations [2] 2. Oil - International oil prices have risen too fast, and buyers prefer to purchase from local sellers. The CIF price of imported crude palm oil in February was about $100/ton lower than that of crude soybean oil, and now the prices are almost the same. If India reduces long - term purchases, it may limit the further rise of vegetable oil prices but may also lead to a tight domestic supply in April [2] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 were 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - Due to the unclear Middle - East situation, the oil sector is supported. India's increased procurement has led to a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days. The oil sector is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [3]