铁矿日报：供需两端存回升预期-20260311

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The iron ore market is expected to experience short - term high - level narrow - range fluctuations and show a slightly stronger tendency. Although the iron ore fundamentals face challenges such as disturbances in the shipping end and high inventory pressure, the positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure limit the short - term downward space. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 787.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the holding volume was 475,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.229 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 770, and the short - term pressure is around 795. It may fluctuate narrowly between the short - term pressure and support levels in the near future [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 773 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 655 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 104.2 (+0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to strengthen while the spot prices were unchanged [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 803.8 yuan/ton, and the basis was 16.3 yuan/ton, with a slight contraction. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 29 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 18 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with declines in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period increased significantly as the previous high shipments gradually arrived. The port inventory of iron ore increased slightly on a month - on - month basis, the berthing inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. Although the shipping has recovered, there are still expectations of disturbances, and the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [2]. - Demand side: The number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and there were environmental protection restrictions in some areas during the Two Sessions. The molten iron output decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, the steel mill profitability rate declined, and the复产 rhythm of molten iron was postponed. However, it is likely to recover seasonally later, and attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the release of the "Report", the policy expectation of the market for the active policy in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then it will gradually turn to the verification stage of real data [4]. - Overseas: For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which will affect the market's judgment duration of inflation and economy. The Fed will only react when the long - term inflation expectation changes. It is too early to discuss the duration of the war at present, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation portfolio construction. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [4].