瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience short - term shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the support of MA60 [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 392,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract for Shanghai tin is - 360 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 50,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 815 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 33,982 lots, a decrease of 994 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 10,632 lots, an increase of 307 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 8,015 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 11,663 tons, a decrease of 590 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 10,031 tons, an increase of 322 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 394,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,750 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 393,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,940 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 6,720 yuan/ton; the import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,600 tons, a decrease of 6,720 tons; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 26 US dollars; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) processing fee is 17,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) is 378,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) is 382,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of tin concentrates (40%) processing fee is 17,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) is 378,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) is 382,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 249,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,780 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Trump said the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and threatened Iran if it blocked oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz; Netanyahu said the action against Iran was not over; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense" and the end of the war was in Iran's hands; in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%, with exports of 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%, and imports of 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%; China's imports and exports to the US decreased by 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20%; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action; the State Council proposed the 2026 central and local budget draft, and the 14th National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee suggested preventing special bond repayment risks [3] Key Points of View - On the macro - level, Iran doesn't trust US promises and the military action has entered a new stage, while the US is planning to provide escort and Trump warns Iran not to lay mines. On the fundamental level, on the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, and the shortage of tin ore supply has shown signs of alleviation. At the smelting end, most enterprises' raw material inventories are still low, and most enterprises are at a loss. Coupled with more year - end overhauls, the output of refined tin is still limited, but there is pressure for output to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window is gradually opening, and import pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has rebounded to 1,500 yuan/ton; LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. Technically, the position has decreased and the price is in a range - bound shock, and the bullish sentiment has declined [3] Key Concerns - No news today [3]