玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡走强-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the disk rebound. In the medium term, the glass demand expectation remains weak. The disk is mainly affected by the international situation in the short - term and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. After the macro - influencing factors subside, it will return to the fundamental logic [2]. - The core contradiction of soda ash is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not improved. The short - term disk sentiment has warmed up, and the spot - futures merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing has increased. The disk is affected by macro - sentiment and energy prices and is temporarily maintained with an oscillatory and slightly strong mindset. If the situation eases, the market will return to the domestic supply - demand logic [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - The glass main contract opened high and went high, oscillating strongly within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, showing a short - term oscillatory and slightly strong signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 333,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 156,000 lots. The intraday high was 1163, the low was 1055, and the closing price was 1112, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.87% compared with yesterday's settlement price [1]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 79.637 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.629 million heavy boxes or 4.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days are 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days from the previous period. The inventories in all regions have increased comprehensively, and the total inventory is approaching the 3 - year high [1]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract opened high and went high, oscillating slightly strongly within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, showing a short - term continuation of the oscillatory and slightly strong signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 10 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 855,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 106,000 lots. The intraday high was 1330, the low was 1220, and the closing price was 1255, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.8% compared with yesterday's settlement price [3]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9227 million tons, a decrease of 24,500 tons or 1.26% compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash is 1.016 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,300 tons, and heavy soda ash is 0.9067 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,200 tons [3].