每日核心期货品种分析-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - As of March 11, 2026, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Caustic soda and Containership Freight Index for Europe routes rose over 7%, while SC crude oil dropped over 9% [5]. - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different futures varieties have their own specific supply - demand situations and price trends [8][10][11] Summary by Category Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 11, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Caustic soda and Containership Freight Index for Europe routes increased by over 7%, bottle chips by over 6%, and PVC, butadiene rubber, and p - xylene by over 5%. On the downside, SC crude oil decreased by over 9%, lithium carbonate by over 5%, and fuel oil by over 4% [5]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.47%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.05%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 0.30%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 0.06%. For treasury bond futures, the main contracts of 2 - year (TS), 5 - year (TF), 10 - year (T), and 30 - year (TL) all declined [6]. - As of 15:21 on March 11, in terms of capital flow, PTA2605, soybean meal 2605, and crude oil 2604 had capital inflows of 1.251 billion, 867 million, and 824 million respectively. Meanwhile, CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and CSI 300 2603 had capital outflows of 4.126 billion, 2.55 billion, and 2.141 billion respectively [6]. Individual Futures Analysis Copper (Shanghai Copper) - Shanghai copper opened high and closed flat. The threat of a strike at Glencore's Australian copper smelter and supply - side factors such as increased production in March due to the resumption of production of previously - overhauled enterprises and new production capacity are considered. The demand from downstream industries is increasing after the holiday, but the inventory is still in the accumulation stage, with a slower accumulation rate. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the strength of the US dollar limit the price fluctuation range [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and fell, with a decline of over 5%. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 increased by 29.4% month - on - month. There is a high probability of the resumption of domestic lithium mines, which is a potential negative factor. The inventory is being depleted, but the rate of depletion has narrowed. The downstream inventory has started to accumulate, indicating high downstream stocking enthusiasm. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening, and the price has limited downside space [10]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the further production increase plan is yet to be determined. The EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has increased more than expected. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, has a significant impact on the oil market. The price of overseas crude oil has fluctuated greatly, and the IEA has proposed to release a large - scale strategic oil reserve. It is recommended to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and the export of Middle Eastern crude oil [11][12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply side shows that the operating rate increased by 1.9 percentage points last week, and the expected production in March 2026 increased by 13.0% month - on - month. The downstream industries' operating rates mostly increased after the Spring Festival. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply of raw materials may be affected by the situation in Venezuela and Iran. The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price, and it is necessary to pay attention to the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries [13][15]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points as of the week of March 6. The enterprise operating rate decreased to about 77.5% due to new maintenance devices. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has boosted the price of PP through the increase in crude oil price. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production and the situation in the Middle East [16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate is maintained at about 89%. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points as of the week of March 6. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The price of crude oil has fluctuated due to the Middle East situation. New production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream has a resistance to high prices. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the plastic price is likely to rise [17][18]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region increased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate increased significantly after the Spring Festival. The export inquiry has improved. The social inventory is relatively high, and the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. With the influence of policies and the tight supply of upstream raw materials, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise [19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and then turned positive in the afternoon. The domestic mines are gradually resuming production, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The steel mills and independent coking enterprises are reducing their inventories. The demand from steel mills is low, and there is a possibility of a second round of price cuts for coke. After the digestion of the war - related sentiment, there is an expectation of a return to the fundamental adjustment [21]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high. The factory still maintains the maximum guiding price, and the spot price is mainly stable. The national reserve is being released, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. The downstream demand is strong during the agricultural season, and the international market has stimulated domestic demand. The upstream factory inventory has decreased significantly. The nitrogen association meeting proposed to ensure supply and stabilize prices. Attention should be paid to the export policy after the peak season and the downstream agricultural demand [22].